2022 Midterm Election: Voter Turnout by Political Party

To no one’s surprise, in the 2022 midterm election, Republican statewide candidates did very well on the Eastern Shore, even if they ultimately lost the election. Local Republican candidates had a strong showing on the Shore as well.
But exactly how red are the Eastern Shore counties? To answer that question, we need to look at voter registrations and turnout.
The Maryland State Board of Elections recently released voter turnout data by political party from the November 2022 gubernatorial election, also known as the midterm election. The data are available broken out by county.

Republican turnout (by percent of registered voters) in all nine Eastern Shore counties was higher than Democratic turnout in the 2022 gubernatorial election. Kent and Talbot Counties tied for highest Republican turnout at 68%, but seven of the nine counties had Republican turnout of 60% or more; only Cecil (with 56%) and Wicomico (with 59%) were lower. Overall Republican turnout on the Shore was 62%.
Only three counties had Democratic turnout over 60%: Kent with 65%, Talbot with 64%, and Cecil with 61%. Worcester was next with 57%. All other Eastern Shore counties had Democratic turnouts less than 50%: Caroline (with 48%), Cecil and Dorchester (with 47%), and Wicomico (with 46%). Overall Democratic turnout for the Shore was 52%.
Unaffiliated voter turnout was lower still; no county had over 50% unaffiliated turnout. Talbot was highest with 50%. The other counties ranged from 31% to 46%, with an overall Eastern Shore unaffiliated turnout of 37%.
Overall Eastern Shore turnout was 53%, higher than Maryland’s 49%. The Baltimore Sun reported that this percentage represented the second lowest election turnout in a midterm election in 40 years. The article also stated that Republican turnout in midterm election years is typically higher than Democratic turnout.

Kent County is the only Eastern Shore county where the number of ballots cast by Democrats exceeded the number of ballots cast by Republicans, for a difference of 258 ballots. In all other counties, the Republican vote differential varied from a low of 1081 ballots in Talbot County to 8,237 ballots in Cecil County.

Because voter registration counts are fluid, they are tallied as of election day for each election. Only three counties had more eligible Democratic voters than Republican: Dorchester (643 more Democrats), Kent (644), and Wicomico (2,852).

That equates to an advantage of 26,491 registered Republican voters over the nine Eastern Shore counties. This, combined with a 10% turnout advantage for Republicans, guaranteed the success of statewide and local Republican candidates on the Shore.

Jan Plotczyk spent 25 years as a survey and education statistician with the federal government, at the Census Bureau and the National Center for Education Statistics. She retired to Rock Hall.
Common Sense for the Eastern Shore




