Blog Post

Citizenship and the 2020 Census

John Christie • February 7, 2019

On January 15, 2019, Judge Jesse Furman, a federal district court judge in New York, issued a 277-page opinion overruling the decision of the Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross, to add a citizenship question to the 2020 census. The decision followed a five-month discovery process, an eight-day trial, extensive post-trial briefing, and closing arguments. Based upon the evidence before him, Judge Furman concluded that Secretary Ross violated both the law and the public trust.

Unfortunately given today’s constantly cascading news cycles, the decision itself and the story of how Secretary Ross’ decision came to be made and its implications for the 2020 census were largely lost on the public. However, as told by Judge Furman’s own extensive findings of fact and law, the story deserves much greater attention as it demonstrates how the public interest can be potentially subverted by efforts founded on political goals rather than good government.

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The Constitution mandates that an “actual Enumeration” be conducted “every . . . ten Years, in such Manner as [Congress] shall by Law direct,” an effort now commonly known as the census, or, more precisely, the decennial census. (Art. I, § 2, cl. 3.) By its terms, every ten years the federal government must endeavor to count every single person residing in the United States, whether citizen or non-citizen, whether living here with legal status or without.

The original purpose of this “Enumeration” was to apportion congressional representatives among the states “according to their respective Numbers.” Today, however, its impact is far greater. Among other things, the census count affects the allocation of electors to the Electoral College, the division of congressional electoral districts within each State, and the apportionment of state and local legislative seats. The census results also directly control the distribution of hundreds of billions of dollars of federal funding each year to both States and localities. It is for all of these reasons that the census has been described by Congress itself as “one of the most critical constitutional functions our Federal Government performs.”

Congress has assigned its constitutional duty to conduct the census to the Secretary of Commerce and the Census Bureau, today a part of the Commerce Department. The Secretary’s fundamental obligation is to obtain a total-population count that is as accurate as possible, consistent with the Constitution and the law. The Bureau conducts the required enumeration principally by sending a short form questionnaire to every household.

The questions posed on the short form census have ebbed and flowed since the first census in 1790 asked each household about “the sexes and colours of free persons,” as well the age of each resident. Most relevant here, a question regarding citizenship appeared for the first time on the fourth census in 1820, when Congress directed enumerators to tally the number of “Foreigners not naturalized.” With one unexplained exception (the 1840 census), a question about citizenship status or birthplace appeared on every census thereafter through 1950.

That changed in the 1960 census. That year, only five questions were posed to all respondents, concerning the respondent’s relationship to the head of household, sex, color or race, marital status, and month and year of birth. In a review of that census several years later, the Census Bureau explained the decision not to ask all respondents about citizenship as follows: “It was felt that general census information on citizenship had become of less importance compared with other possible questions to be included in the census.”

Beginning in 1960, the decennial census questionnaire sent to every household has not included any question related to citizenship status. In both Republican and Democratic administrations, the Census Bureau has vigorously opposed adding any such question because of its concern that doing so would depress response rates, including those of non-citizens and immigrants, thereby undermining the accuracy of the headcount. The Bureau concluded that questions designed “to ascertain citizenship will inevitably jeopardize the overall accuracy of the population count” because such questions “are particularly sensitive in minority communities and would inevitably trigger hostility, resentment and refusal to cooperate.” Census Bureau directors appointed by presidents of both political parties have agreed. (See Endnote 1.)

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In March 2018, Secretary Ross announced that he had decided to add a citizenship question to the 2020 census short questionnaire. In a memorandum announcing this decision, Secretary Ross stated that he only “began” considering adding a citizenship question after receiving a letter from the Department of Justice, dated December 12, 2017, requesting citizenship data from the census in order to enforce the Voting Rights Act (VRA). The Secretary reiterated in subsequent congressional testimony that the citizenship question on the 2020 short form census “is necessary to provide complete and accurate data in response to the DOJ request.” And the Secretary also stated that he was “not aware” of any discussions between himself and any White House officials about the citizenship question.

Eight days after Secretary Ross’s March 26, 2018 memorandum announcing his decision, a case challenging the decision was filed by a coalition of governmental entities, including 18 states (Maryland being one of them), the District of Columbia, and 15 cities and counties. These governmental entities all alleged that Secretary Ross’s decision to include a citizenship question violated the Administrative Procedure Act (APA). The APA “sets forth the procedures by which federal agencies are accountable to the public and their actions subject to review by the courts.” (See Endnote 2.)

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According to Judge Furman, the evidence disclosed at trial revealed that Secretary Ross’s description of the citizenship decision was “materially inaccurate.” In fact, “a very different set of events” had occurred as described in painstaking detail in his opinion.

In particular, the evidence showed that shortly after his confirmation as Secretary of Commerce, Secretary Ross discussed the addition of the citizenship question with then-White House advisor Steve Bannon, among others; that Secretary Ross wanted to add the question to the 2020 census prior to, and independent of, the DOJ’s December 12, 2017 request; that the Secretary and his political aides pursued that goal vigorously for almost a year, with no apparent interest in promoting more robust enforcement of the VRA. Then, after becoming convinced that they needed another agency to request and justify a need for the question, Secretary Ross and his political aides worked hard to generate such a request for the citizenship question from both the Department of Homeland Security and the DOJ. Frustrated at the delay in the receipt of an affirmative response from DOJ, Secretary Ross directly intervened by a phone conversation with Attorney General Sessions which resulted in the DOJ’s request for a citizenship question. In setting up the phone call, an aide to Sessions emailed Ross’ chief of staff saying that “it sounds as if we can do whatever you need us to do. The AG is eager to assist.”

Based upon trial testimony and documentary evidence, Judge Furman held “while the Court is unable to determine—based on the existing record, at least—what Secretary Ross’s real reasons for adding the citizenship question were, it does find, by a preponderance of the evidence, that promoting enforcement of the VRA was not his real reason for the decision.” (See Endnote 3.) Secretary Ross and his political aides aimed to “launder” their request through another agency—that is, to obtain cover for a decision that they had already made—and the reasons underlying any request from another agency were “secondary, if not irrelevant.”

The trial record also revealed that Secretary Ross’s decision had been made in contravention of the Census Bureau’s long-held opposition to such a question, which continued. Following the receipt of the DOJ letter, the Census Bureau, including the Bureau’s Chief Scientist, concluded that adding the question would “harm the quality of the census count” by “reducing the self-response rate,” thereby increasing the Bureau’s costs and harming the overall data and integrity of the census.

Judge Furman concluded that the evidence in the trial record “overwhelmingly” supported the conclusion that the addition of a citizenship question to the 2020 census would cause a significant net differential decline in self-response rates among households with at least one non-citizen and that the Bureau’s follow-up procedures aimed at non-responding households would fail to cure that decline. More specifically, he found that the addition of a citizenship question to the 2020 census would cause an incremental net differential decline in self-responses among non-citizen households of at least 5.8%. He further opined that that estimate is “conservative and that the net differential decline could be much higher.” The implementation of the Bureau’s follow-up procedures for non-responding households would simply replicate all of the same effects on non-citizen response that will cause the decline in self-response in the first place.

On the merits, Judge Furman determined that Secretary Ross had violated the APA in multiple independent ways—“a veritable smorgasbord of classic, clear-cut APA violations.” Secretary Ross’s decision to add a citizenship question was “arbitrary and capricious” on its own terms. He failed to consider several important aspects of the problem; alternately ignored, cherry-picked, or badly misconstrued the evidence in the record before him; acted irrationally both in light of that evidence and his own stated decisional criteria; and failed to justify significant departures from past policies and practices. Finally, the evidence establishes that Secretary Ross’s stated rationale—to promote VRA enforcement—was just a pretext. In other words, that he announced his decision in a manner that concealed its true basis rather than explaining it, as the APA required him to do.

As further described by Judge Furman, “these violations are no mere trifles.” The fair and orderly administration of the census is one of the Secretary of Commerce’s most important duties, and it is critical that the public have “confidence in the integrity of the process.” (See Endnote 4.)

It should also be noted that four former Census Bureau Directors opposed the addition of a citizenship question. They and two other former Directors wrote to Secretary Ross to express “deep concern” about the addition of such a question. In addition, five of the six former Directors filed an amicus brief in support of Plaintiffs in these cases and the sixth, John Thompson, testified as an expert witness on Plaintiffs’ behalf.

The current professionals in the Census Bureau also concluded that the DOJ’s stated interest in having more granular citizenship data could be satisfied in a less costly, more effective and less harmful manner. The evidence reveals that at the express direction of Attorney General Sessions, DOJ deliberately (and unusually) refused to meet with representatives of the Census Bureau to discuss the Census Bureau’s conclusion.

Appeals from Judge Furman’s decision by the Department of Justice have already been made to both the Second Circuit Court of Appeals and to the Supreme Court. In fact, the Solicitor General has urged the Supreme Court to resolve the appeal prior to any judgment of the Second Circuit, which would ordinarily rule before the Supreme Court. As a result, although the opinion of Judge Furman is an important chapter in this significant dispute, it is obviously not yet likely the last chapter. These appeals to Judge Furman’s decision against including a citizenship question will need to be resolved soon as the 2020 census is now less than a year away.


Endnotes:


  1. The Bureau has recently requested citizenship information through other means besides the decennial census questionnaire. However, such requests have gone to a limited number of individuals and thus have not raised the same concerns as does adding a citizenship question to the decennial census. Until 2000, the Bureau requested such information through a “long-form” census questionnaire—a list of questions sent each decade to just one of every six households. In 2005, the Bureau replaced the long-form questionnaire with the American Community Survey (ACS), which contains more than forty-five questions and is sent annually to only one of every thirty-six households.
  2. Challenges to Secretary Ross’ decision also have been brought in four other cases in federal district courts in California and Maryland. Bench trials are ongoing in all four cases as this is being written.
  3. The DOJ vigorously opposed Judge’s Furman’s order allowing a deposition of Secretary Ross up to the Supreme Court which suspended the deposition until after briefs and oral argument on the issue. In light of the opinion of Judge Furman on the merits, the issue involving the deposition became moot.
  4. Although not directly relevant to Judge Furman’s ultimate opinion, it is worthy to note the unusual extent to which the Department of Justice endeavored to prevent or delay a decision on the merits of this issue. As Judge Furman noted, the defendants “tried mightily” to avoid a ruling. They asserted a slew of unsuccessful jurisdictional arguments, raised multiple challenges to this Court’s decisions authorizing discovery beyond the administrative record and tried no fewer than fourteen times to halt the proceedings altogether. Fortunately for the rule of law, these tactics failed to prevent the court from reaching the result described herein.


Common Sense for the Eastern Shore

By John Christie April 2, 2025
Among Donald Trump’s most recent targets is what he calls “rogue law firms.” At 6pm last Thursday, March 27, he issued an Executive Order (EO) aimed at my old law firm, WilmerHale, as one of those “rogue” firms. Approximately 15 hours later, the firm filed a 63-page complaint challenging the EO on multiple constitutional grounds. The EO is an “unprecedented assault on the bedrock principle that one should not be penalized for merely defending or prosecuting a lawsuit” and constitutes an “undisguised form of retaliation for representing clients and causes Trump disfavors.” And by 8pm on Friday, March 28, a little over 24 hours after the EO was first issued, a federal district court judge in Washington granted a request for a temporary restraining order, blocking key provisions of the EO from taking effect for now. In doing so, the Court found that “the retaliatory nature of the EO is clear from its face. There is no doubt that it chills speech and legal advocacy and qualifies as a constitutional harm.” The Executive Order The EO and a so-called “Fact Sheet” that went with it recites that the Administration is committed to addressing the significant risks associated with law firms, particularly so-called “Big Law” firms that engage in conduct detrimental to critical American interests. Wilmer Cutler Pickering Hale and Dorr LLP (WilmerHale) is yet another law firm said to have abandoned the legal profession’s highest ideals and abused its pro bono practice by engaging in activities that “undermine justice and the interests of the United States.” The specific examples offered in support of this conclusion: The EO asserts that WilmerHale “engages in obvious partisan representations to achieve political ends,” an apparent reference to the firm’s representation of Trump’s political opponents — namely the Democratic National Committee and the presidential campaigns of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. The EO cites WilmerHale’s “egregious conduct” in “supporting efforts to discriminate on the basis of race,” an apparent reference to the firm’s representation of Harvard in the Students for Fair Admissions litigation. The EO accuses WilmerHale of “backing the obstruction of efforts to prevent illegal aliens from committing horrific crimes,” an apparent reference to the firm’s litigation related pro bono practice and successful challenges to immigration related policies. The EO accuses WilmerHale of “furthering the degradation of the quality of American elections,” an apparent reference to the film’s involvement in challenges to restrictive state voter-identification and voter-registration laws. The EO singles out certain current and former WilmerHale partners, including Robert Mueller, for special criticism by describing Mr. Mueller’s investigation as “one of the most partisan investigations in American history” and having “weaponized the prosecutorial power to suspend the democratic process and distort justice.” The EO then Revokes security clearances held by WilmerHale attorneys; Prohibits the federal government from hiring WilmerHale employees absent a special waiver; Orders a review and the possible termination of federal contracts with entities that do business with the firm; Calls for the withdrawal of government goods or services from the firm; and Calls for restrictions on the ability of WilmerHale employees to enter federal buildings (presumably including federal courthouses) and on their “engaging” with government employees. WilmerHale’s Complaint WilmerHale engaged Paul Clement, a former Solicitor General during the George W. Bush administration and a well-known advocate frequently representing conservative causes, to represent the firm in this matter. Assisted by some 15 WilmerHale litigators, the complaint names the Executive Office of the President and 48 other Departments, Commissions, and individual Officers in their official capacity as defendants. A variety of constitutional violations are alleged: The First Amendment protects the rights of WilmerHale and its clients to speak freely, and petition the courts and other government institutions without facing retaliation and discrimination by federal officials. The separation of powers limits the President’s role to enforcing the law and no statute or constitutional provision empowers him to unilaterally sanction WilmerHale in this manner. The EO flagrantly violates due process by imposing severe consequences without notice or an opportunity to be heard. The EO violates the right to counsel protected by the Fifth and Sixth Amendments and imposes unconstitutional conditions on federal contracts and expenditures. The complaint alleges that WilmerHale has already suffered irreparable damage in the 16 hours since the EO issued. The firm has been vilified by the most powerful person in the country as a “rogue law firm” that has “engaged in conduct detrimental to critical American interests. The EO will inevitable cause extensive, lasting damage to WilmerHale’s current and future business prospects. The harm to the firm’s reputation will negatively affect its ability to recruit and retain employees. Further Proceedings Temporary restraining orders constitute emergency relief upon a showing of likely success on the merits and irreparable harm were the temporary relief not entered. A later hearing will be held in order for the judge to determine whether a preliminary injunction should be issued preventing the government from executing the EO during the continued length of the litigation. Editorial Note: In light of the recent capitulation of several “Big Law” firms to the unreasonable and unconstitutional attacks by the Trump administration, WilmerHale is providing a blueprint for resistance as it fights back. More law firms need to be inspired by WilmerHale’s response to Trump’s demand for revenge on his so-called political enemies. John Christie was for many years a senior partner in a large Washington, D.C. law firm. He specialized in anti-trust litigation and developed a keen interest in the U.S. Supreme Court about which he lectures and writes.
By Bill Flook & CSES Staff April 2, 2025
Tom Timberman was one of the founders of Common Sense for the Eastern Shore. Sadly, he died last month. He will be missed. Common Sense exists because of his leadership and inspiration. His vision was to provide factual and timely commentary and analysis on topics that concern people who live and work on Maryland's Eastern Shore, and to provide factual reporting to help readers shape their own lives. It was important to Tom, as it is today to the editorial board, for Common Sense to help voters to be aware of the effects — personal and local — of decisions made at the federal and state levels. Especially relevant now is this from our Mission Statement: “We seek an America responsive to its citizens and its constitution.” We reprint this tribute from Bill Flook, President of the Democratic Club of Kent County : Many of us were deeply saddened to learn of TomTimberman’s passing last week. It’s hard to believe that such a strong Democratic voice is gone. I worked with Tom for much of the past decade on many good projects promoting our values and activities, including helping on his campaign for County Commissioner, and I’ll particularly miss following his lead as Captain of the Dawn Patrol. Our group met most Saturday mornings for coffee and some good chat, before heading up to Dems HQ to set up the booth there. We’ll miss you, Tom!
By Jared Schablein April 2, 2025
After over 12 hours of debate over two days (and a whole circus from the other side), the Maryland House of Delegates has passed HB 350, this year's state budget, and sent it to the State Senate. This budget is a deal between House Democrats, Senate Democrats, and Governor Wes Moore. It faces our state's $3 billion deficit head-on not with fantasy math, but with real choices: smart cuts and fair new revenue. This is what grown-up governing looks like. How We Got Here: Maryland’s budget problems didn’t start overnight. Leaders began warning about a shortfall in 2017 when Governor Larry Hogan was in office. Hogan made our state budget bigger every year, but the legislature wasn’t allowed to move money around or make common-sense changes. By law, they could only make cuts. In 2020, Maryland voters changed that. Starting in 2023, lawmakers finally got full power to shape the budget, not just cut from it. Instead of fixing the problem, Governor Hogan used federal COVID relief to hide our fiscal instability. Then, before leaving office, he drained our state’s savings from $5.5 billion to $2.3 billion to boost his image. Today, we are facing a new fiscal arsonist. Donald Trump’s trade wars and cuts to federal programs hit Maryland hard. We have more federal jobs and agencies than any other state, so we felt it worse than most. A University of Maryland study says Trump’s tariffs alone could cost us $2 billion. Trump/Musk's policies caused over 30,000 people in Maryland to lose their jobs, offices to shut down, and promised investments to disappear. These federal cuts added another $300 million to our budget deficit. COVID relief gave us a short break and even created a fake surplus under Hogan, but that money is gone now. Meanwhile, housing, healthcare, and college prices have gone way up. The Trump–Musk White House is making it worse by cutting even more funding, eliminating research, and gutting the services we rely on. That’s why Maryland had to act. We needed a real plan to protect working people, fund our schools and hospitals, and keep our state strong. Why Cuts Were Needed Trump’s trade wars and cuts to federal agencies hit Maryland harder than any other state. A University of Maryland study says those tariffs alone could cost us $2 billion. That hurts real people: A chicken farmer on the Eastern Shore is paying 25% more for fertilizer. A dock worker in Baltimore has fewer ships to unload. A restaurant owner in Western Maryland can’t afford eggs and tomatoes. We’ve lost over 30,000 jobs. Offices have shut down. Promised investments disappeared. The decisions of the Trump/Musk administration added $300 million to our state deficit.
No mandate. Image: CSES design.
By Jan Plotczyk November 19, 2024
 The 2024 presidential election was over swiftly. The Associated Press called it at 5:34 am on Nov. 6, and by 8 am, President-elect Donald Trump was crowing about the “ historic mandate ” given to him by the American people. A “mandate”? Turns out not. Trump jumped to an early lead on election night, but in the following days, his lead diminished as mail-in and provisional ballots were counted. A Baltimore Banner article on Nov. 6 highlighted the “Trump shift” that had occurred in every political subdivision in Maryland, even in counties where Democrat Kamala Harris won. This shift described the increase in Trump support since his loss to President Joe Biden in 2020 . As of Nov. 6, the biggest Trump shift was an 8.1% increase in his support in red Cecil County, but there were also shifts in the central Maryland counties that are the state’s Democratic strongholds — 4.3% in Montgomery and lesser amounts in other blue counties. Fourteen counties recorded shifts of 4% or more. On the Eastern Shore, every county had a shift over 4.5% except Talbot (2.7%), and the five largest shifts were Shore counties. For the state’s Democrats, it did not look encouraging. But as mail-in and provisional ballots were counted across the state, the Trump shift was reduced everywhere, and as of Nov. 16, disappeared altogether in Garrett (-1.2%) and Charles (-0.1%) counties. The shift dropped below 3% in all Maryland counties. Cecil’s shift became 2.1%. Montgomery’s shift dropped to 2.9%. Talbot’s shift declined to 0.2%, lowest of the Eastern Shore counties. Now, instead of five, only two of the highest five shifts were in Eastern Shore counties. The red bars in the chart below represent the Trump shift percentage values as of Nov. 16, in ascending order. The grey bars represent the misleading (and ephemeral) Trump shift percentage values as of Nov. 6. Please note the degree to which the Trump shift lessened and disappeared in the 10 days after the election. Another red mirage. But if you had only read the Nov. 6 article and not looked at the updated data, you would have been fooled into thinking Trump support is stronger than it is.
School board elections. Image: CSES design
By Jim Block November 19, 2024
How many times were Common Sense readers told that the 2024 election would be the most important ever? Whoever the winner, people knew the results would not unite the country but further divide it. One place of divisive conflict on the Eastern Shore, indeed almost everywhere, is the local school system. Two extreme right-wing organizations targeting school board control have made their presence known on the Eastern Shore. Moms for Liberty , according to its website , wants “to empower parents to defend parental rights at all levels of government.” In the recent election, Moms for Liberty endorsed at least two Cecil Co. Board of Education candidates. One of them, Sam J. Davis (who got 44% of the total vote ), lost his race to Diane Racine Heath (55%). Another Moms for Liberty candidate, Tierney Farlan Davis, Sr. (57%), defeated Dita Watson (42%). Both defeated candidates were endorsed by the Cecil County Classroom Teachers Association . A second active conservative organization is the 1776 Project PAC . This PAC’s mission statement declares that it “is committed to reigniting the spark and spirit of that revolution by reforming school boards across America. Since progressive-led efforts to lockdown schools during the covid epidemic, test scores have declined, parents and students are increasingly worried about violence both in and out of the classroom, while politicians and activists push their own ideology.” Of the eight Eastern Shore school board candidates the 1776 PAC supported, three were unopposed. The five competitive races were won by 1776 PAC candidates; the average margin of victory was about 12%. The Talbot Co. candidate Ann O’Connor wrote a piece for the Delmarva Times and the Easton Gazette denying that her candidacy had received “endorsements from Moms for Liberty or any other group.” On the other hand, on X , we read that the 1776 PAC gave “huge congratulations to Ann O’Connor . . . for being elected to the now-conservative Talbot County Board of Education!” One might wonder whether or not any group gave her an endorsement. In a late October, the Washington Post ran a long story about the significant partisan cash flowing into Maryland school board races. In theory, Maryland school board elections are nonpartisan, because state law prohibits party labels on school board ballots. On the other hand, according to the Post, the 1776 PAC “has spent a total of $75,409.58 on 13 Maryland school board candidates across Cecil, Queen Anne’s, Talbot, Calvert, Somerset and St. Mary’s counties.” That sum and the other money spent on school board candidates does not indicate the strength of passion in the candidates and their supporters. Our governments are obligated to allow, if not to support, all citizens in their exercise of their First Amendment rights. Assuming freedom of speech applies to students and teachers , the last thing public school administrations should do is wrongly to restrict material that teachers teach and students learn. But when students learn that school systems inappropriately control what is taught, they will be at best confused. On one hand, they are taught they have free speech; on the other hand, they learn that in school, they don’t. Have we just been through American history’s most important election? If these school board elections diminish our Constitutional rights, the sad answer is yes. Jim Block taught English at Northfield Mount Hermon, a boarding school in Western Mass. He coached cross-country and advised the newspaper and the debate society there. He taught at Marlborough College in England and Robert College in Istanbul. He and his wife retired to Chestertown, Md., in 2014. 
Vote 2024. Image: CSES design
By Peter Heck November 19, 2024
It’s probably too early for a real analysis of why the Harris/Walz ticket was defeated in this year’s presidential election, although there are plenty of people taking a crack at it. For a couple of interesting examples, take a look at Heather Cox Richardson’s Nov. 6 column , or David Brooks in the New York Times. Important factors certainly included sexism and racism. Many Americans still aren’t ready to accept a woman leader — especially a Black woman. And I spoke to one local person who said that many Black men he knew were wary of voting for Harris because she had been a prosecutor, putting other Black men and minorities behind bars. Whether or not that was a factor, Harris’s share of the Black vote was some 10% lower than Biden’s. But the most significant factor was probably voter turnout. According to a Nov. 11 New York Times story , Democratic turnout was significantly lower than in 2020. This helped produce a narrow majority in the popular vote for the Republican ticket. Trump’s total nationwide was about 74 million votes, roughly the same as he received in 2020. Harris, on the other hand, was at 70 million — roughly 11 million less than President Biden’s 2020 total. If those voters had come out again and voted mostly Democratic, Harris would have some 81 million votes to Trump’s 74 million, giving her the popular vote. Depending on where the voters lived, that could have produced a very different result in the Electoral College and the election itself. Though the Electoral College totals imply otherwise, this was really a close election. Incidentally, a reaction against incumbents may be another significant factor, and a global rather than a U.S. phenomenon. An article in the Financial Times notes that every incumbent party — on both ends of the political spectrum — in developed countries lost significant vote share in an election this year — an astonishing turn of events. Here on the Eastern Shore, nobody should be surprised that the majority of the voting public went for the Republicans. The area, after all, is predominantly rural and conservative, with a few blue enclaves such as Easton and Chestertown. While town-by-town results on the Shore are not yet available, in Talbot County, in which Easton is the largest town, Trump won by some 500 votes. Queen Anne’s gave Trump the win by about 9,000 votes. Local elections were not on the ballot in 2024, but local officials on the Shore — mayors, sheriffs, state’s attorneys, county commissioners, delegates to the General Assembly, etc. — largely reflect that Republican dominance. And day-to-day life is more directly affected by these people in all communities than by anyone in Washington. Still, what happens on the national level will have its effect on all of us. The architects and supporters of Project 2025 are going to be part of the new Trump administration, and he has appointed some of the project’s supporters already. Those appointees are probably going to be quite adamant in pushing through their agenda. Even if they can’t accomplish everything, some of the proposed plans ought to be cause for concern, above all the weakening of women’s rights, especially reproductive freedom. And with the Senate, possibly the House, and the Supreme Court effectively on the same page as the administration, the constitutional checks and balances will be severely weakened. If, as he said he would, Trump imposes heavy tariffs on imports, almost every economist predicts that consumer prices will rise, thus making it harder to control inflation. If a mass deportation of immigrants gets underway, many jobs will go unfilled, particularly in construction and food service. This will further hurt the economy. It’s possible that pressure to fill those jobs could raise wages. If RFK Jr. brings his anti-vaccine beliefs to the health department, another pandemic — a new covid strain, or just the regular flu — could kill millions. If Elon Musk starts cutting back what he perceives as governmental waste, programs benefitting local communities are likely to suffer, again removing dollars from local and state economies. The foreign policy implications of some of Trump’s statements could be significant. He has threatened to pull the U.S. out of NATO. This may be unlikely, but that political stance may encourage current and would-be aggressors in Europe and the Middle East. And Trump has said he will end the war in Ukraine in one day. Does he really have that much influence on Putin? Or does Putin have that much influence on Trump? Time will tell. Looking down the road, one also has to consider Trump’s health. Born in June 1946, he will be 82 by the end of his term. What if he becomes incapacitated, physically or mentally? A stroke, a heart attack, or just the rigors of old age in a stressful office — all are possible. Would Vice President-elect Vance, a former venture capitalist in the technology sector, continue Trump’s policies, or would he have ideas of his own? At one time, Vance criticized many of Trump’s positions. If Trump is no longer in charge, could there be a period of infighting as various factions within the party and administration assert their own priorities? Any of that could have significant effects, and it’s not unlikely, given Trump’s age. So it looks as if we are about to live in “interesting times.” Some people are talking about leaving the country, while others are still trying to understand what just happened. Many are already looking forward and starting to concentrate on the 2026 midterms, when Republicans could consolidate their gains or Democrats could make a comeback. May we all get through these times to the point where we can tell a younger generation the kinds of stories our elders told us about the Great Depression or the Civil Rights movement — hopefully, with something resembling a happy ending. Peter Heck is a Chestertown-based writer and editor, who spent 10 years at the Kent County News and three more with the Chestertown Spy. He is the author of 10 novels and co-author of four plays, a book reviewer for Asimov’s and Kirkus Reviews, and an incorrigible guitarist. 
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