Harris Surveys: Intentionally Misleading? Incompetently Designed? Not sure?

Jan Plotczyk • January 9, 2024


Rep. Andrew P. Harris (R-MD-1) — my congressman — wants to know what I think.

 

He wants to know so badly that he’s invited me to respond to two opinion surveys. Which my tax dollars help pay for.

 

Via text message last month, Harris asked me to weigh in on the “issues that matter most” to me. Linked to the text was an online survey with 12 questions (what I’ll call the long form). (Unfortunately, this survey doesn't look active any more.) I wasn’t asked which issues matter most to me. Instead, Harris’s office seems to assume I agree with the MAGA Republican agenda, and the survey questions reflect that bias.

 

Via mail last week, I was invited to tell him what I think by answering a shorter questionnaire with seven questions (the short form). On this survey, I was asked to choose which issue concerns me most from a list of right-wing GOP talking points. I could answer by return mail or online.

 

Contrary to what you might expect, the short form is not a condensed version of the long form. Only one question is shared by the two surveys. Two other questions are similar, but the answer choices differ.

 

I contacted one of Harris’s field offices to ask about this not-quite-duplicative effort of dueling surveys. The staff person who answered the phone did not have much information to share with me about survey design or participant selection but said that he would record that I called asking that the results be shared with Harris’s constituents.

 

The long form was not presented to all Harris’s constituents (I did my own casual survey to determine this); the short form was mailed to a much larger audience — even to people who have moved away.

 

The questions reveal no nuanced understanding of complex issues, and the answer choices are simplistic sound bites.

 

Here are a few examples:

 

Long Form Question: Americans continue to face record high inflation. Do you believe we need to control government spending, particularly wasteful spending, to bring down inflation?

Yes

No

Not sure

 

The problem with this question is that record high inflation is not continuing. The inflation rate for the last six months was 2%. The inflation rate for 2022 was 6.2%, so the inflation rate has come down dramatically. Predicted average rates for 2024-27 are in the 1.8% range. Republicans such as Harris have a political interest, however, in perpetuating the myth that Americans still face out-of-control inflation.

 

Economists agree that cutting government spending is one element of fiscal policy for controlling inflation, but only one; another major element is increasing taxes, which this question doesn’t touch. Harris fails to acknowledge that inflation is a complex issue and that things are better than he’ll acknowledge.

 

Harris’s phrase, “wasteful spending,” is a dog whistle that includes spending on social programs — such as food assistance, welfare and unemployment payments, assistance for childcare — used by people who consume what is considered (by some) to be more than their fair share of government resources.

 

This question really reads: You are paying more for goods and it’s not your fault. Should the government reduce spending on social programs that you don’t use so that inflation can be curbed?

 

There is no short form version of this question.

 

Long Form Question: Should Congress limit late term abortions or leave it up to states to decide?

Limit late term abortions

Leave it to states to decide

Not sure

 

There are several problems with this question. First, what is a “late term abortion”? This is not a medical term, but a political construct. According to the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, this term has “no clinical or medical significance.”

 

A full-term pregnancy is 39-40 weeks and ”late term” refers to 41-42 weeks. Because abortions do not occur during these two weeks, there is no such thing as a late-term abortion, although this imprecise language makes it seem as if many abortions are performed in the third trimester.

 

Later abortions typically take place at the end of the second trimester, but only about 1.3% of abortions take place at 21 weeks or beyond (second trimester is weeks 13-28). As a medical doctor, Harris should take more care with his language, as some people tend to trust his word and think he knows what he’s talking about.

 

The other problem with this question is the choices given. Not wanting to choose either of the first two options does not mean one is not sure.

 

There is no short form version of this question.

 

Long Form Question: Should Maryland do more to crack down on crime?

Yes

No

Not sure

 

Crime is another issue often exaggerated by Republicans, especially during a Democratic administration. The crime rate in Maryland in fact decreased in 2023, due in large part to a 21% reduction in homicides in Baltimore City. This question does not acknowledge the recent decrease in crime, nor does it assume that there are effective programs in place to reduce crime.

 

But “Yes” is an easy answer to this question, no matter your political persuasion. “Cracking down” on crime can include the implementation of data-based community programs and community policing initiatives — hardly right-wing solutions. But it can also mean easing gun safety laws so that more people can arm themselves, expanding qualified immunity of local police so that officers are not “hampered” in their policing efforts, and mandating harsher punishments for persons convicted.

 

The short form does have a version of this question.

 

Short Form Question: With rising crime, should we support the police and enforce criminal sentences or weaken law enforcement?

Fund Police & Enforce Penalties

Weaken

Unsure

 

Perhaps this is the second, revised version of the crime question, the first version having been determined to be too wishy-washy and not liable to produce the desired result. This version reduces the issue to a simplistic and restrictive choice. And, as pointed out above, crime is not rising.

 

I could critique more questions, but you can see for yourself. I’ve copied all the questions to the end of this article.

 

I am looking forward to seeing the results of these opinion surveys.

 

Here’s a final note about the “right direction/wrong track” question. Over the last 50 years, since the question was first asked in 1971, there have only been three times when Americans have answered that the country was going in the right direction. These were in 1984-86, under Reagan; in 1998-2000, under Clinton; and in 2001, right after 9/11 when Bush was in office.

 

At all other times, “polls have consistently found that a solid majority of Americans have not been happy with the direction of our nation.” As Philip Bump wrote in the Washington Post, “The first thing to know is that Americans are almost always more likely to say the country is headed in the wrong direction than on the right track.”

 

Interestingly, a Gallup poll in 2022 found that people were five times more satisfied with their own life than with the direction of the country.

 

Let’s keep that in mind when Harris reports his results.

 

The survey questions are below. How many problematic questions can you find?

 

~~~~~

 

The Short Form Survey

 

~~~~~

The Long Form Survey

 

Text received Wednesday, 12/13/23:

 

Hi, this is Congressman Andy Harris. As 2023 comes to a close, I wanted to get your input on the issues that matter most to you. Please take a few minutes to fill out the survey here.

 

Good evening, this is a constituent survey paid for by official funds authorized by the House of Representatives. It is critical that we hear from you about your concerns and your thoughts on key issues. Please take a few moments to answer these quick questions so we can better serve you in Congress.

 

Do you believe our country is headed in the right direction, or is it going off on the wrong track?

Right direction

Wrong track

Not sure

 

How, if at all, have you and your family been impacted by inflation?

Extremely impacted

Somewhat impacted

Not impacted at all

Not sure

 

What is your opinion of Joe Biden’s policies?

Favorable

Unfavorable

No opinion/not sure

 

What is your opinion of Governor Wes Moore’s policies?

Favorable

Unfavorable

No opinion/not sure

 

Should Maryland do more to crack down on crime?

Yes

No

Not sure

 

Should Congress limit late term abortions or leave it up to states to decide?

Limit late term abortions

Leave it to states to decide

Not sure

 

Should we secure the Southern Border?

Yes

No

Not sure

 

Americans continue to face record high inflation. Do you believe we need to control government spending, particularly wasteful spending, to bring down inflation?

Yes

No

Not sure

 

One of the first acts of the new Congress was to eliminate the administration’s plan to hire 87,000 new IRS Agents according to the Ways and Means majority staff. Do you support stopping the expansion of the IRS?

Yes

No

Not sure

 

Do you support limiting government spending on food stamp programs to nutritious foods only?

Yes

No

Not sure

 

Do you think Maryland should expand school choice options for students in failing public schools?

Yes

No

Not sure

 

Do you believe taxpayer dollars be used to fund transgender surgery in our military?

Yes

No

Not sure

 

How much have you seen, read, or heard recently about Congressman Harris?

A lot

Just some

Nothing at all

 

Are you female or male?

Female

Male

 

Which age range do you fall under?

18-29

30-39

40-49

50-64

65+

 

We thank you for your time spent taking this survey. Your response has been recorded.

 

 

Jan Plotczyk spent 25 years as a survey and education statistician with the federal government, at the Census Bureau and the National Center for Education Statistics. She retired to Rock Hall.

 

Common Sense for the Eastern Shore

By Friends of Eastern Neck Board of Directors April 16, 2025
Let your elected representatives and business and cultural leaders know that our Refuge and others like it all over the country deserve to be protected. They deserve our stewardship for the natural wonders they shelter, and because they provide refuge for people, too.
By Elaine McNeil April 9, 2025
The Budget Deficit In a recent debate on closing Maryland’s budget deficit, Minority Leader Jason Buckel, a Republican delegate from Allegany County, made an important point: “The man upstairs has only been there for two, three years. I don’t blame him for our economic failures of the last 10,” referring to Democratic Gov. Wes Moore, who was elected in 2022. Ahead of the 2026 gubernatorial elections, Buckel’s comments highlight a key reality that many of his Republican colleagues seldom admit: It isn’t right to blame Gov. Moore for a budget deficit that has been brewing for years. Now projected at $3.3 billion, Maryland’s structural deficit is a problem that started long before Moore took office. In fact, it was first projected in 2017, during the tenure of former GOP Gov. Larry Hogan. This isn’t an opinion — it’s a fact that Buckel and other lawmakers, including Republican Del. Jefferson Ghrist, have bravely acknowledged. During that same debate, Ghrist remarked that the Department of Legislative Services had warned about this deficit throughout Hogan’s administration, yet he did little to address it. Ghrist pointed out that during Maryland’s “good years,” when the state received a flood of federal covid-19 relief dollars, spending spiraled without regard for long-term fiscal health. Hogan used these one-time federal funds to support ongoing programs, which masked the true state of Maryland’s finances and created an illusion of fiscal stability. Hogan continues to take credit for the “surplus” Maryland had in 2022 — even though experts repeatedly note it was caused by the influx of federal dollars during the pandemic. As Ghrist correctly observed, the lack of fiscal restraint and slow growth during the Hogan years laid the groundwork for the $3.3 billion structural deficit the state faces today. Indeed, Maryland’s economy has been stagnant since 2017, especially in comparison to its neighboring states, well before Moore took office. Compounding these challenges are President Donald Trump’s reckless layoffs and trade wars with our allies. Thousands of federal workers who live in Maryland are losing their jobs, which will cost the state hundreds of millions of dollars in lost revenue. Trump’s tariffs will also put an enormous strain on local businesses, including Eastern Shore farmers, who are now subject to up to 15% retaliatory tariffs on chicken, wheat, soybeans, corn, fruits, and vegetables. FY2026 Budget Considering this grim reality, Maryland’s lawmakers are making difficult, but necessary, decisions to shore up the state’s finances. Gov. Moore and state legislative leaders recently agreed to a budget that prioritizes expanding Maryland’s economy without raising taxes on most residents. In fact, 94% of Marylanders should see either a tax cut or no change at all to their income tax bill under the proposed agreement. Lawmakers also plan to cut government spending by the largest amount in 16 years, while at the same time making targeted investments in emerging industries, such as quantum computing and aerospace defense, so the state is less dependent on federal jobs. While the richest Marylanders might see their income taxes go up, it’s reasonable to ask someone making over $750,000 a year to pay $1,800 more to support law enforcement, strengthen our schools, and grow our economy. As for the proposed tax on data and IT services, these products aren’t subject to Maryland’s sales tax under current law. Maryland leaders want to modernize our tax code by levying a 3% sales tax on these products. Because they don’t raise income taxes on the majority of Marylanders and because state leaders are also cutting spending by billions, these ideas are fair. They’re also necessary after Gov. Hogan chose to kick the can down the road instead of addressing Maryland’s long-predicted deficit and now that Trump’s policies will lay off thousands of Marylanders and his tariffs will hurt our state. By making responsible choices now, Maryland leaders are putting the state on a path to long-term economic stability. Their decisions will help Maryland thrive, create jobs, and invest in the vital services that every resident relies on — without burdening hardworking families. I’m confident Maryland will emerge stronger, more resilient, and ready to lead in the industries of tomorrow. Elaine McNeil is chair of the Queen Anne’s Democratic Central Committee.
By John Christie April 2, 2025
Among Donald Trump’s most recent targets is what he calls “rogue law firms.” At 6pm last Thursday, March 27, he issued an Executive Order (EO) aimed at my old law firm, WilmerHale, as one of those “rogue” firms. Approximately 15 hours later, the firm filed a 63-page complaint challenging the EO on multiple constitutional grounds. The EO is an “unprecedented assault on the bedrock principle that one should not be penalized for merely defending or prosecuting a lawsuit” and constitutes an “undisguised form of retaliation for representing clients and causes Trump disfavors.” And by 8pm on Friday, March 28, a little over 24 hours after the EO was first issued, a federal district court judge in Washington granted a request for a temporary restraining order, blocking key provisions of the EO from taking effect for now. In doing so, the Court found that “the retaliatory nature of the EO is clear from its face. 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The EO accuses WilmerHale of “backing the obstruction of efforts to prevent illegal aliens from committing horrific crimes,” an apparent reference to the firm’s litigation related pro bono practice and successful challenges to immigration related policies. The EO accuses WilmerHale of “furthering the degradation of the quality of American elections,” an apparent reference to the film’s involvement in challenges to restrictive state voter-identification and voter-registration laws. The EO singles out certain current and former WilmerHale partners, including Robert Mueller, for special criticism by describing Mr. Mueller’s investigation as “one of the most partisan investigations in American history” and having “weaponized the prosecutorial power to suspend the democratic process and distort justice.” The EO then Revokes security clearances held by WilmerHale attorneys; Prohibits the federal government from hiring WilmerHale employees absent a special waiver; Orders a review and the possible termination of federal contracts with entities that do business with the firm; Calls for the withdrawal of government goods or services from the firm; and Calls for restrictions on the ability of WilmerHale employees to enter federal buildings (presumably including federal courthouses) and on their “engaging” with government employees. WilmerHale’s Complaint WilmerHale engaged Paul Clement, a former Solicitor General during the George W. Bush administration and a well-known advocate frequently representing conservative causes, to represent the firm in this matter. Assisted by some 15 WilmerHale litigators, the complaint names the Executive Office of the President and 48 other Departments, Commissions, and individual Officers in their official capacity as defendants. A variety of constitutional violations are alleged: The First Amendment protects the rights of WilmerHale and its clients to speak freely, and petition the courts and other government institutions without facing retaliation and discrimination by federal officials. The separation of powers limits the President’s role to enforcing the law and no statute or constitutional provision empowers him to unilaterally sanction WilmerHale in this manner. The EO flagrantly violates due process by imposing severe consequences without notice or an opportunity to be heard. The EO violates the right to counsel protected by the Fifth and Sixth Amendments and imposes unconstitutional conditions on federal contracts and expenditures. The complaint alleges that WilmerHale has already suffered irreparable damage in the 16 hours since the EO issued. The firm has been vilified by the most powerful person in the country as a “rogue law firm” that has “engaged in conduct detrimental to critical American interests. The EO will inevitable cause extensive, lasting damage to WilmerHale’s current and future business prospects. The harm to the firm’s reputation will negatively affect its ability to recruit and retain employees. Further Proceedings Temporary restraining orders constitute emergency relief upon a showing of likely success on the merits and irreparable harm were the temporary relief not entered. A later hearing will be held in order for the judge to determine whether a preliminary injunction should be issued preventing the government from executing the EO during the continued length of the litigation. Editorial Note: In light of the recent capitulation of several “Big Law” firms to the unreasonable and unconstitutional attacks by the Trump administration, WilmerHale is providing a blueprint for resistance as it fights back. More law firms need to be inspired by WilmerHale’s response to Trump’s demand for revenge on his so-called political enemies. John Christie was for many years a senior partner in a large Washington, D.C. law firm. He specialized in anti-trust litigation and developed a keen interest in the U.S. Supreme Court about which he lectures and writes.
By Bill Flook & CSES Staff April 2, 2025
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By Jared Schablein April 2, 2025
After over 12 hours of debate over two days (and a whole circus from the other side), the Maryland House of Delegates has passed HB 350, this year's state budget, and sent it to the State Senate. This budget is a deal between House Democrats, Senate Democrats, and Governor Wes Moore. It faces our state's $3 billion deficit head-on not with fantasy math, but with real choices: smart cuts and fair new revenue. This is what grown-up governing looks like. How We Got Here: Maryland’s budget problems didn’t start overnight. Leaders began warning about a shortfall in 2017 when Governor Larry Hogan was in office. Hogan made our state budget bigger every year, but the legislature wasn’t allowed to move money around or make common-sense changes. By law, they could only make cuts. In 2020, Maryland voters changed that. Starting in 2023, lawmakers finally got full power to shape the budget, not just cut from it. Instead of fixing the problem, Governor Hogan used federal COVID relief to hide our fiscal instability. Then, before leaving office, he drained our state’s savings from $5.5 billion to $2.3 billion to boost his image. Today, we are facing a new fiscal arsonist. Donald Trump’s trade wars and cuts to federal programs hit Maryland hard. We have more federal jobs and agencies than any other state, so we felt it worse than most. A University of Maryland study says Trump’s tariffs alone could cost us $2 billion. Trump/Musk's policies caused over 30,000 people in Maryland to lose their jobs, offices to shut down, and promised investments to disappear. These federal cuts added another $300 million to our budget deficit. COVID relief gave us a short break and even created a fake surplus under Hogan, but that money is gone now. Meanwhile, housing, healthcare, and college prices have gone way up. The Trump–Musk White House is making it worse by cutting even more funding, eliminating research, and gutting the services we rely on. That’s why Maryland had to act. We needed a real plan to protect working people, fund our schools and hospitals, and keep our state strong. Why Cuts Were Needed Trump’s trade wars and cuts to federal agencies hit Maryland harder than any other state. A University of Maryland study says those tariffs alone could cost us $2 billion. That hurts real people: A chicken farmer on the Eastern Shore is paying 25% more for fertilizer. A dock worker in Baltimore has fewer ships to unload. A restaurant owner in Western Maryland can’t afford eggs and tomatoes. We’ve lost over 30,000 jobs. Offices have shut down. Promised investments disappeared. The decisions of the Trump/Musk administration added $300 million to our state deficit.
No mandate. Image: CSES design.
By Jan Plotczyk November 19, 2024
 The 2024 presidential election was over swiftly. The Associated Press called it at 5:34 am on Nov. 6, and by 8 am, President-elect Donald Trump was crowing about the “ historic mandate ” given to him by the American people. A “mandate”? Turns out not. Trump jumped to an early lead on election night, but in the following days, his lead diminished as mail-in and provisional ballots were counted. A Baltimore Banner article on Nov. 6 highlighted the “Trump shift” that had occurred in every political subdivision in Maryland, even in counties where Democrat Kamala Harris won. This shift described the increase in Trump support since his loss to President Joe Biden in 2020 . As of Nov. 6, the biggest Trump shift was an 8.1% increase in his support in red Cecil County, but there were also shifts in the central Maryland counties that are the state’s Democratic strongholds — 4.3% in Montgomery and lesser amounts in other blue counties. Fourteen counties recorded shifts of 4% or more. On the Eastern Shore, every county had a shift over 4.5% except Talbot (2.7%), and the five largest shifts were Shore counties. For the state’s Democrats, it did not look encouraging. But as mail-in and provisional ballots were counted across the state, the Trump shift was reduced everywhere, and as of Nov. 16, disappeared altogether in Garrett (-1.2%) and Charles (-0.1%) counties. The shift dropped below 3% in all Maryland counties. Cecil’s shift became 2.1%. Montgomery’s shift dropped to 2.9%. Talbot’s shift declined to 0.2%, lowest of the Eastern Shore counties. Now, instead of five, only two of the highest five shifts were in Eastern Shore counties. The red bars in the chart below represent the Trump shift percentage values as of Nov. 16, in ascending order. The grey bars represent the misleading (and ephemeral) Trump shift percentage values as of Nov. 6. Please note the degree to which the Trump shift lessened and disappeared in the 10 days after the election. Another red mirage. But if you had only read the Nov. 6 article and not looked at the updated data, you would have been fooled into thinking Trump support is stronger than it is.
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