Status of Coronavirus Today:Coronavirus is a viral infection identified in humans last December in Wuhan, China, a city of 11 million people. As of Feb. 3 there are 17,236 cases in China alone and it has spread to 25 countries, including the U.S. (more virulent than SARS in 2002-3). The death toll to date in China is 361, while 7 cases have been identified in the U.S. with no deaths. Globally, of those with coronavirus, only about 20% became seriously ill, although the epidemic is in its early days.
There is no international consensus yet on how to detect and prevent infection or how to proceed forward. Beijing has been reluctant to share analytical data of the virus itself.
Initially, the Chinese quarantined a region containing some 35 million people, now expanded to 65 million (total Chinese population is 1.4 billion). Other countries have focused on individuals who had recently visited China and those with whom they’ve had contact. Last week, the first person to person transmission in America was identified (husband to wife). However, people who have never visited China have been infected as well.
Status of Infections in U.S. Today:To date, the U.S. has been able to deal successfully with the few coronavirus cases identified. Medical research experts in viral epidemics in the U.S. and Europe are working to develop an anti-serum because there is serious concern the number of cases will multiply.
Soon after the first American contracted the virus, President Trump announced that the “…outbreak is totally under control.” Many are unsure Mr. Trump was accurate, given the steps his Administration has taken to reduce the U.S. Government’s ability to combat such potential pandemics.
Over the past three years, the Administration has (1) eliminated the U.S. Government Office of Pandemic Response (created after the 2014 Ebola eruption), (2) severely cutback the U.S. Government’s overseas outbreak prevention programs from 49 to 10 countries, and (3) discontinued U.S. Government surveillance operations to identify new viral threats before they jump from animals to humans.
Potential Substantial Impact on Global Economies:
When the SARS virus broke out in China in 2002-03, China’s economic development had just begun to surge. It was manufacturing low-cost items, e.g., T-shirts, sneakers, and toys, but in large quantities for international markets including the U.S. In 2002 China’s GDP was $1.7 trillion.
In 2020, China continues to supply the world with low cost production, but is now a dominant producer of high-tech products, including smartphones, computers, and auto parts, and China itself is now a coveted market for American products; in 2019 GM sold more cars in China than in the U.S. And In 2019 China’s GDP was $14 trillion, second only to the U.S.
America’s semiconductor sector has manufacturing centers in China, which is also a major market. Qualcom depends on China for 47 percent of its annual revenue. Ben May, a global economist at Oxford Economics, described the problem: “If you run out of widgets essential to your production and all widgets come from China, your assembly lines will stop.“ The former chief economist at the U.S. Department of Commerce put it this way: “If a vast swath of a country (China) the whole world depends on as a manufacturing workshop closes down, that’s a major international problem.”
Yes, China is a very important player in the global economy, particularly in its supply chains, but why is the coronavirus going to damage U.S. and other countries? The reasons are simple: China is trying to control the contagion by preventing its citizens in affected cities and regions from leaving them. Similarly, the Chinese government is shuttering large factories, assembly plants, and other locations where people congregate in large numbers, e.g., schools, universities, government offices, etc. International retailers like Walmart, McDonalds and Starbucks have closed their Chinese outlets.
Foreign countries with a large number of citizens present in China are transporting them home. The U.S. flew some 200 Americans from China to Alaska where they are quarantined for 2-3 weeks. Major international airlines have stopped flying to or from China. Nationals of industrialized nations (6 major economies) are prevented from traveling to China and the U.S. (and others) will not allow Chinese to enter their country.
Conclusion:Basically, China is shut down and cut off from much of the world it traveled to, did business with, and manufactured and supplied parts for. In the 19th Century, those with leprosy were kept on distant islands. Father Damien, a Catholic priest, cared for hundreds of leprosy victims on Molokai in what is now Hawaii. China is “on Molokai” until the world is satisfied the coronavirus is no longer a threat.