The good news is that the covid pandemic is over, but the bad news is that covid isn’t gone for good. Instead, experts say, covid is here to stay.
The covid virus has become pervasive almost everywhere, and like flu, the common cold, and other ordinary illnesses, covid is now endemic, with seasonal and local fluctuations. It’s the new normal.
Covid is still dangerous and now surging again across the United States.
Along with flu and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), cases of covid have been rising sharply since December 2023.
Covid has been among the leading causes of death in the U.S. every year since the beginning of the pandemic in 2020, and this year doesn’t look any different.
According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, hospital admissions for covid peaked at 7,778 in January 2024.
For comparison, in January 2022, covid hospitalizations reached the all-time national high of over 145,000. Infections were at record levels then, with the national number of new cases at over 700,000 per day.
This winter, the numbers are much lower. However, they are still high, with continuing — though lower — peaks and valleys.
This surge in hospitalizations reflects holiday travel and socializing from Thanksgiving through New Year’s, as well as the appearance of a new Omicron variant, JN.1, nicknamed Pirola.
This variant was detected in last August and showed up a month later in the U.S.
Fortunately, even though it is more contagious, Pirola doesn’t appear to cause more serious disease. It has a new mutation that helps it evade vaccine protection more easily, though vaccines still protect against severe illness or death. As with previous covid strains, early data on JN.1 indicate that the unvaccinated are three to five times more likely to die from a covid infection.
After an early January peak, hospitalization rates began to drop, but not by much. Two weeks later, there was still an average of 6,754 new hospitalizations every day for that week.
This current surge in covid cases and hospitalizations is driven by several factors. Cold and dry winter weather is more hospitable to viruses in general and keeps people indoors which concentrates the virus and prolongs exposure. Good indoor air circulation can significantly reduce infections, as can efficient, high quality air filters.
Covid Hot (and Warm!) Spots
The above numbers are all national statistics, showing that covid is increasing in the U.S. However, covid rates fluctuate locally, creating hot spots. These hot spots change rapidly; as one hot spot fades another arises.
The map below shows known U.S. covid hot spots as of January 20 as measured by daily hospital admissions.
There are hot spots across the U.S. Numerous areas are over 20; some are as high as 50 (red) or 75 or more (dark purple). The Eastern Shore is one such area.
The grey on the map covers areas for which there is no data. Since the pandemic was declared officially over in May 2023, the reporting of covid statistics is no longer mandatory, so many municipalities have stopped collecting or reporting their local covid cases. There are undoubtedly more hot spots in those grey areas.
The Maryland State Public Health Services sent out an advisory letter on December 28, strongly recommending that medical facilities increase their safety measures against covid and other respiratory illnesses by re-instituting universal masking and other protective measures until Maryland’s combined hospitalization for all respiratory illnesses stays below 10 per 100,000 population for two consecutive weeks. The state-wide rate was 11.4 on December 16 but much higher in the hot spots.
The enlarged section of the map shows that large parts of the Eastern Shore had high hospitalization rates of 45-75 and up per 100,000 residents.
These rates are for hospitals, not towns or counties. Some hospitals have more beds and services, drawing people from outside the hospital’s geographical area, thus possibly exaggerating the prevalence of covid in the surrounding area while underestimating the amount in other areas.
Sources and More Information:
“COVID-19 Activity Increases as Prevalence of JN.1 Variant Continues to Rise,” CDC, Jan. 5, 2024.
https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/whats-new/JN.1-update-2024-01-05.html
“Maryland hospitals seeing post-holiday increase in COVID and flu cases,” Angela Roberts, Baltimore Sun, Jan. 8, 2024. https://www.baltimoresun.com/2024/01/08/respiratory-season-flu-covid-rsv-hospitals/
“Md. Health Department Urges Masks, Vaccination after Respiratory Illness-related Hospitalizations,” Danielle J. Brown, Maryland Matters, Jan. 4, 2024. https://www.marylandmatters.org/2024/01/04/md-health-department-urges-masks-vaccination-after-respiratory-illness-related-hospitalizations/
“Track Covid-19 in the U.S.,” New York Times, updated Jan. 30, 2024. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/us/covid-cases.html
“We’re In a Major COVID-19 Surge. It’s Our New Normal,” Jamie Ducharme, Time Magazine, Jan. 12, 2024.
https://time.com/6554340/covid-19-surge-2024/
Jane Jewell is a writer, editor, photographer, and teacher. She has worked in news, publishing, and as the director of a national writer's group. She lives in Chestertown with her husband Peter Heck, a ginger cat named Riley, and a lot of books.
Title image: Pond at Pickering Creek Audubon Center, Talbot Co. Photo: Jan Plotczyk