Childcare is Scarce in Maryland — and the Pandemic Made Matters Worse

Katelynn Winebrenner and Laura Shaughnessy, Capital News Service • July 16, 2024


Halfway through her 12-week maternity leave last summer, Sarah Haddaway didn’t expect the trouble that would accompany her search for childcare.

 

After unexpected rejections from one fully booked childcare facility after another, the lifelong resident of Maryland’s western panhandle began calling every provider she could find.

 

Almost 11 months later, Haddaway’s son Brooks — who just turned 1 — is on at least seven providers’ waitlists. He’s been on those waitlists since the end of July 2023.

 

“It’s a nightmare,” said Haddaway, who is from Frostburg, in Allegany County. “There is no opening anywhere you look. It’s like winning the lottery.”

 

Parents across Maryland and the nation face the same struggle for one simple reason: the number of children who need childcare exceeds the number of slots available in child care facilities.

 

The covid-19 pandemic made matters worse. Maryland lost 15% of its childcare providers and nearly 7% of its child care slots from Jan. 1, 2020, through Jan. 1, 2024, according to state statistics retrieved by the Local News Network. Those stats show that the number of childcare slots in Maryland fell by 15,152 in those four years.

 

Some Maryland counties experienced especially dramatic changes. St. Mary’s County, in Southern Maryland, lost more than a quarter of its providers. Caroline County, on the Eastern Shore, lost nearly a quarter of its childcare slots.

 

In other words, in many parts of Maryland and the nation, childcare has gone missing. In this project, the Local News Network details how and why it happened and what can be done about it. Included is a county-by-county-look at childcare trends, which readers can access here.

 




It’s not just Maryland families who struggle to find childcare. A national survey of 2,000 Americans conducted in November 2023 for Care.com, a company that tries to match families with caregivers, found 65% of families with young children had spent time on childcare waitlists.

 

Many childcare providers nationwide left the business amid the pressures of the pandemic, said Dr. Jay Belsky, a child psychologist and professor of human development at the University of California, Davis. He said that’s one reason why families struggle to find childcare in a nation that, unlike many others, doesn’t offer consistent federal support for it.

 

“What covid showed us was how fragile the childcare system was,” Belsky said. “We don’t have a childcare system. We have a non-system.”

 

‘Super, super difficult’

 

Childcare providers closed their doors in recent years for a variety of reasons tied to one central fact: their work is harder now. In a Local News Network survey of 256 current childcare providers in Maryland, 62.5% said their jobs have become more difficult since the start of the covid-19 pandemic.

 

Asked to cite the challenges they face, 57.4% of childcare providers listed financial stability, while 48% cited burdensome state regulations — issues that are connected, according to many providers. Meanwhile, 46.5% of the providers surveyed said they struggled to hire quality staff.

 

Childcare providers who left the business in recent years echoed those concerns.

 

Ben Stelle founded Kidpower at Silver Spring International in 2003 under a contract with Montgomery County that allowed him to work directly out of a school.

 

“It’s super, super, super difficult to turn a profit if you don’t have the kind of sweetheart deal that I had,” Stelle said. “Unless you were getting subsidized and had your own sort of small monopoly on a school area, you were out of luck.”

 

He attributed this mostly to Maryland state regulations, which require that childcare centers have one adult employee for every three children under the age of 2. 

 

“You couldn’t turn a profit because you couldn’t stay affordable at the ratios that were being forced upon you,” Stelle said.

 

Raven Hill, a spokeswoman for the Maryland State Department of Education — which oversees childcare in the state — said there’s a good reason the state requires more staff to supervise the youngest children.

 

“The 1:3 staff-to-child ratio for infants ensures that children receive high-quality care and activities,” Hill said. “Younger children typically need more care and attention, and smaller group sizes allow adults to interact more easily with each child and respond to their unique individual needs.”

 

Stelle decided to leave the childcare business, ending his contract with the county before the end of the 2021 school year, for reasons other than state regulations. He said he was fatigued after decades of working with children.

 

“The glamor of it wore off,” he said.

 

Candace Hall, who operated a childcare facility out of her home in Montgomery County, cited a different reason for why she closed her operation in 2021.

 

“The last licensor specialist I had was extremely rude and demeaning,” Hall said in response to the Local News Network survey. “I decided after that last inspection, I would have to close down as I will not be disrespected in my own home.”

 

Meanwhile, Maxine Seidman — who owned and operated Play Keepers Inc. out of a school in Randallstown for 40 years — said her income fell as the pandemic prompted parents to keep their children at home. Some of her staffers left, too.

 

“Certainly none of us were making the kind of money we were making before, which wasn’t a whole heck of a lot,” Seidman said. “But this made it very difficult to get staff after covid.”

 

The struggle to stay afloat during the pandemic was unlike anything she had experienced.

 

“It was very distressing,” she said.

 

Seidman decided to retire in 2021. But now she’s concerned about the availability of childcare in Baltimore County, which state statistics show lost 1,821 childcare slots between the start of 2020 and the start of 2024.

 

“I worry about some of the families,” Seidman said. “Who is taking care of their children? I wonder where those children are.”

 

A frustrating search

 

Many Maryland parents also wonder where the childcare providers are.

 

Noor Shakeel said she knew finding childcare in Montgomery County would be a struggle.

 

“I was always stressed out, hearing from my friends’ experiences,” said Shakeel, who lives in Germantown.

 

To alleviate that stress, Shakeel’s parents cared for her son until he was 18 months old. At that point, she could tell he wanted and needed more socialization.

 

Shakeel and her husband tried to keep an open mind when they started touring childcare centers, but she came across obstacles.

 

“Distance, safety and money,” Shakeel said. “Those are the three big factors.”

 

The process is also long, she said.

 

“It comes to a point when you don’t have a choice other than to settle,” she said.

 

Eventually, Shakeel’s mother-in-law connected them to a family friend who happened to have an opening in her in-home day care.

 

“We just got lucky,” Shakeel said.

 

Other parents are not as fortunate.

 

Masha Mukhina, an assistant professor of physics at the University of Maryland, moved to Prince George’s County in 2023. Colleagues advised her to add her son, who is now almost 2 years old, to the waitlist for Bright Horizons, a childcare center in College Park affiliated with the university.

 

Much to her surprise, her son continues to be on the waitlist and has even dropped down a few spots due to aging out of the infant group into the toddler group.

 

“Children move from this waiting list in and out based on age, and I’m supposed to be on the priority list as an employee of the university,” said Mukhina, who ended up hiring a nanny to care for her son. “And I don’t think it gets me any priority because everyone, more or less, on that waiting list is in the same position.”

 

Several childcare providers said availability is especially tight for families seeking care for children under the age of 2.

 

“Because of the regulations and because of the guidelines that surround children under the age of 2, many of the providers and centers are no longer taking infants, which is making it harder to find infant care or childcare for children under 2 throughout the state of Maryland, not just Baltimore," said Brenda Velez-Jimenez, who operates Brenda’s Little Monkey Daycare in Catonsville, in Baltimore County.

 

A continuing struggle

 

As difficult as it is for families to find quality childcare now, some providers across Maryland fear the situation will get worse before it gets better.

 

For one thing, the federal government offered temporary aid totaling about $24 billion to prop up the childcare industry during the pandemic. That program expired in September 2023.

 

On top of that, several providers noted they face new competition from unlicensed providers that popped up during the pandemic and operate without the same costly restrictions imposed by state regulations.

 

“You’ve got other children’s neighbors that are providing unlicensed care,” Velez-Jimenez said.

 

Velez-Jimenez criticized the state for not doing anything about those unlicensed providers, but Hill, the Maryland State Department of Education spokeswoman, begged to differ.

 

“The Office of Child Care investigates all illegal childcare complaints within 10 days of receipt,” she said. “A cease-and-desist letter is issued to providers informing them that they must stop providing childcare if they are doing so.”

 

Other childcare providers expressed fears about another new competitor: the new state pre-K program for 3- and 4-year-olds to be implemented over the next few years under the state’s education reform plan, the Blueprint for Maryland’s Future.

 

While private childcare providers are being counted on to join the pre-K program, some worry they will lose clients — and income — once the state starts offering free pre-K to 3- and 4-year-olds.

 

“We are terrified that if we lose our 3- and 4-year-olds, you’re going to see centers closing down right and left because there won’t be enough income to support the teachers who work there,” said Flora Gee, pedagogical administrator at the Greenbelt Children’s Center in Prince George’s County.

 

Gee said her facility has already been losing teachers to public schools that pay twice as much, and she isn’t the only childcare provider who worries about staff shortages.

 

“Finding and retaining competent employees who align with my day care facility’s values and standards is a constant challenge,” said Yvette Gordon, who runs a family childcare facility in Baltimore City.

 

Kelli Deist, who runs an in-home day care in Frostburg, in Allegany County, said there’s an obvious reason for childcare staffing shortages.

 

“We don’t get paid what we deserve,” she said.

 

During the pandemic, the state permitted Deist to take in children of essential workers in exchange for state compensation.

 

“Financially, it was a struggle because we weren’t allowed to charge the parents,” she said. “The state was supposed to be paying us, but because it was such a big, new thing, they were way behind. I went three months without any payment at all.”

 

A nationwide problem

 

Maryland’s childcare shortage is part of a nationwide phenomenon. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, as many as 100,000 Americans have been forced to stay home from work because of their struggles to find childcare.

 

“This burden falls disproportionately on women of color who are on the frontlines of many essential jobs,” said Tina Kauh, a senior program officer and childcare expert at the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. “Many are also childcare providers who face the monumental feat of juggling their low-wage, high-risk jobs with caring for their families and themselves in the midst of a pandemic.”

 

With childcare slots in such high demand, parents end up paying more and more. Care.com in 2023 found families responding to its survey spent 24% of their income on childcare — even though the federal government considers child care affordable if it takes up 7% or less of a family’s income.

 

Families spent an average of $321 a week on day care, up 13% from $284 in 2022, and many families are going into debt to pay childcare bills.

 

“Within the first five years of their child’s life, parents are being forced into a financial hole that is nearly impossible to climb out of,” Care.com CEO Brad Wilson said in a statement announcing the study’s findings.

 

The United States is unusual among developed nations in that it has no universal support system for childcare or standardized policy on parental leave. Maryland offers a scholarship program that helps subsidize the cost of childcare for lower-income families, but it does not cover the full cost.

 

Belsky, of the University of California, Davis, said he believes there should be a system in place that gives parents a choice to stay home to raise their children if they want, or to be able to choose a high-quality care facility.

 

“Giving families with young children more support, including economic support, might afford them the ability to more freely choose what they feel is best for their young children’s care,” Belsky said.

 

But for families where both parents work, stable childcare is a necessity, Belsky said.

 

“Especially at younger ages, stability of care is preferable, desirable, if only from the standpoint of quality of life,” he said.

 

That stability is important for kids and parents alike, according to Natasha Cabrera, a University of Maryland expert on human development.

 

“The first five years of life [and] the first year of life is critically important for brain development,” said Cabrera, a professor at UMD’s College of Education. “Children are like sponges. Their brains are ready, and they’re wired to learn, but they need the cognitive stimulation from the environment.”

 

The childcare shortage could have negative consequences for children across Maryland, such as decreased trust, lowered academic success or increased risk for developing a mental illness, she said.

 

“It’s awful,” Cabrera said. “It’s very scary. If you care about the future of Maryland, you need to invest in its children.”

 

 

Childcare summaries and statistics for every county in Maryland, along with the city of Baltimore, are available at this link.

 

 

Capital News Service is a student-powered news organization run by the University of Maryland Philip Merrill College of Journalism. For 26 years, they have provided deeply reported, award-winning coverage of issues of import to Marylanders.

 

Local News Network reporters Fiona Flowers and Jess Daninhirsch contributed to this report.

 

Common Sense for the Eastern Shore

By CSES Staff November 4, 2025
Voters in Hurlock have delivered sweeping changes in this year’s municipal election, as Republican and GOP-aligned candidates won key races there. The results mark a setback for Democrats and a significant political shift in a community that has historically leaned Democratic in state and federal contests. The outcome underscores how local organizing and turnout strategies can have an outsized impact in small-town elections. Analysts also suggest that long-term party engagement in municipal contests could shape voter alignment in future county and state races. Political analysts warn that ignoring municipal elections and ceding them to the GOP could hurt the Maryland Democratic Party in statewide politics. Turnout increased by approximately 17% compared with the 2021 municipal election, reflecting heightened local interest in the mayoral and council races. Incumbent Mayor Charles Cephas, a Democrat, was soundly defeated by At-Large Councilmember Earl Murphy, who won with roughly 230 votes to Cephas’s 144. In the At-Large Council race, Jeff Smith, an independent candidate backed by local Republicans, secured a 15-point win over Cheyenne Chase. In District 2, Councilmember Bonnie Franz, a Republican, was re-elected by 40 percentage points over challenger Zia Ashraf, who previously served on the Dorchester Democratic Central Committee. The only Democrat to retain a seat on the council was David Higgins, who was unopposed. The Maryland Republican Party invested resources and campaign attention in the Hurlock race, highlighting it on statewide social media and dispatching party officials, including Maryland GOP Chair Nicole Beus Harris, to campaign. Local Democrats emphasized support for Mayor Cephas through the Dorchester County Democratic Central Committee, but the Maryland Democratic Party did not appear to participate directly.
By CSES Staff November 4, 2025
In what political observers are calling a clear break from Maryland’s moderate Republican establishment, Wicomico County Executive Julie Giordano chose former Gov. Bob Ehrlich — not former Gov. Larry Hogan — as the guest of honor at her re-election fundraiser in late October. Billed as Giordano’s annual Harvest Party, her event drew conservative activists from across the lower Eastern Shore and featured Ehrlich as keynote speaker. This was immediately read by insiders as a signal that Giordano will embrace the party’s right-wing base ahead of 2026, distancing herself from Hogan’s more centrist, bipartisan image. “Bringing in Bob Ehrlich instead of Larry Hogan wasn’t accidental,” one longtime Republican strategist said. “It shows Giordano wants to plant her flag with the MAGA-aligned wing of the party, the same voters who now dominate Maryland’s Republican primary base.” Hogan, who has hinted at another run for governor, was notably absent from this year’s Tawes Crab and Clam Bake in Somerset County, a high-profile gathering long considered essential for statewide contenders. Coupled with Giordano’s public alignment with Ehrlich, Hogan’s absence has fueled speculation that his influence within Maryland’s GOP is slipping. Those doubts were amplified by new polling data. A statewide survey commissioned by the Baltimore Banner found Gov. Wes Moore (D) leading Hogan 45% to 37% in a hypothetical 2026 matchup, with 14% undecided. The poll, conducted by phone and web from Oct. 7–10 among more than 900 registered voters, carries a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points. The results suggest that while Hogan remains popular among moderates and independents, Moore continues to hold a firm advantage statewide, particularly among Democrats and younger voters. Giordano’s decision to align herself with Ehrlich rather than Hogan further illustrates the ideological divide defining Maryland Republicans heading into 2026. As the party drifts further to the right, analysts say Hogan’s brand of pragmatic centrism may no longer have a natural home in today’s GOP. For now, Ehrlich’s appearance in Salisbury is being seen as a symbolic moment, one that cements Giordano’s status as a leading figure in the state’s Trump-aligned movement and underscores how quickly the political winds have shifted. For Hogan, once seen as the Republican best positioned to reclaim the governor’s office, that shift may mark the end of an era.
By Jan Plotczyk November 4, 2025
Can Maryland create a new congressional map that will flip the state’s sole Republican district to the Democrats? Gov. Wes Moore has created a Governor's Redistricting Advisory Commission to consider mid-cycle redistricting and Maryland has jumped into the redistricting fray. The commission will conduct public hearings, solicit public feedback, and present recommendations to the governor and Maryland General Assembly. “My commitment has been clear from day one — we will explore every avenue possible to make sure Maryland has fair and representative maps,” said Moore. “And we also need to make sure that, if the president of the United States is putting his finger on the scale to try to manipulate elections because he knows that his policies cannot win in a ballot box, then it behooves each and every one of us to be able to keep all options on the table to ensure that the voters’ voices can actually be heard .” Moore’s commission is one of those options — a response to Trump’s call to Republican-led states to create more GOP House districts before the 2026 midterm elections. Three GOP states — Texas, Missouri, and North Carolina — have completed a Trump gerrymander for a gain of seven seats and three more states — Indiana, Utah, and Ohio — could create new maps with a total of four additional Republican seats. That would make 11, should they withstand challenges. Democratic-led states made a lot of noise at first about countering these GOP efforts, but only California and Virginia have campaigns for new maps underway. California wants to flip five seats and Virginia hopes for up to four. Optimistically, that could add up to as many as nine. Maryland’s goal would be to add one Democratic seat. Other states on both sides could soon follow, in some cases taking advantage of existing redistricting deadlines or ongoing litigation. Maryland State Senate President Bill Ferguson (D-Balto City) is not in favor of mid-cycle redistricting, calling it too dicey. “Simply put, it is too risky and jeopardizes Maryland’s ability to fight against the radical Trump administration. At a time where every seat in Congress matters, the potential for ceding yet another one to Republicans here in Maryland is simply too great,” Ferguson wrote in a letter to Senate Democrats. Rep. Andrew P. Harris (R-MD01), whose district would be targeted by redistricting, called the effort "the most partisan thing you could do." He whined, “It just wouldn’t be fair.” Harris warned that any redistricting could backfire on the Democrats. “We will take this to court, it will go as high as necessary, and in the end, a judge could draw a map that actually has two or three Republican congressmen,” Harris said. “I’d caution the Democrats, be careful what you wish for.” Harris and his wife, Maryland GOP Chair Nicole Beus Harris, have perhaps already worked out a strategy. The Governor’s Redistricting Advisory Commission, last constituted by Gov. Martin O’Malley in 2011, will begin its work this month. The five-member commission includes: Chair: Senator Angela Alsobrooks Senate President Bill Ferguson or designee Speaker Adrienne A. Jones or designee Former Attorney General Brian Frosh Cumberland Mayor Ray Morriss “We have a president that treats our democracy with utter contempt. We have a Republican party that is trying to rig the rules in response to their terrible polling,” said Sen. Alsobrooks. “Let me be clear: Maryland deserves a fair map that represents the will of the people. That’s why I’m proud to chair this commission. Our democracy depends on all of us standing up in this moment.” Will Maryland’s First District finally be competitive? Can we at long last replace “AWOL Andy” Harris? Stay tuned…. Jan Plotczyk spent 25 years as a survey and education statistician with the federal government, at the Census Bureau and the National Center for Education Statistics. She retired to Rock Hall.
By CSES Staff November 4, 2025
In strong numbers, local residents turned out last month for a community information session on offshore wind hosted by the Alliance for Offshore Wind at the Ocean Pines library. The forum heard from industry experts, environmental advocates, and labor leaders to discuss how offshore wind projects can support jobs, clean energy, and coastal resilience along Maryland’s Eastern Shore. Featured were Sam Saluto of Oceantic, Jim Strong of the United Steelworkers, Ron Larsen of Sea Ink Solutions, and Jim Brown of the Audubon Society, all of whom emphasized the long-term environmental and economic benefits of wind development off Maryland’s coast. Speakers outlined how the project, once completed, is expected to create hundreds of high-paying jobs, generate clean power for tens of thousands of homes, and reduce reliance on fossil fuels that cause pollution and coastal erosion. “The potential here is extraordinary,” said Saluto, highlighting Oceantic’s ongoing work to ensure safety and sustainability standards remain at the highest level. “We’re not just talking about wind turbines. We’re talking about revitalizing local economies and protecting the Shore’s way of life.” Union representative Jim Strong echoed that sentiment, noting that Maryland’s labor community sees offshore wind as a chance to rebuild domestic manufacturing capacity while giving workers access to strong wages and long-term stability. Environmental voices, including Jim Brown of the Audubon Society, focused on how properly sited wind projects can reduce carbon emissions while coexisting with marine wildlife and migratory bird patterns. While most of the evening centered on data and community questions, the event briefly turned tense when Ocean City Mayor Rick Meehan, who is leading a lawsuit challenging Maryland’s offshore wind plans, attempted to question the panel. The mayor appeared to lose his train of thought mid-sentence and later cast doubt on the reality of climate change, drawing visible concern from several attendees. Meehan, a New Yorker who moved to Ocean City in 1971 and has held public office since 1985, has become one of the region’s most vocal opponents of offshore wind. His critics argue the lawsuit represents an effort to stall progress rather than engage with the facts presented by energy, labor, and environmental experts. Despite the brief exchange, the overall tone of the evening was forward-looking. Residents lingered after the formal discussion to review informational materials, speak with industry representatives, and learn about opportunities for community involvement. For many, the message was clear: Maryland’s transition to clean energy is not only feasible, it’s already underway, and the Eastern Shore stands to benefit.
By CSES Staff October 24, 2025
 Sparking alarm among housing advocates, social workers, and residents, Salisbury Mayor Randy Taylor has announced plans to gut Salisbury’s nationally recognized Housing First program, signaling a break from years of bipartisan progress on homelessness. Created in 2017 under then-Mayor Jacob Day, the initiative was designed around a simple but powerful principle: that stable, permanent housing must come first before residents can address problems with employment, health, or recovery. The program was designed to provide supportive housing for Salisbury’s most vulnerable residents — a model backed by decades of national data showing it reduces homelessness, saves taxpayer dollars, and lowers strain on emergency services. But under Taylor’s leadership, that vision appears to be ending. In a letter to residents, the City of Salisbury announced that the Housing First program will be shut down in 2027, in effect dismantling one of the city’s long-term programs to prevent homelessness. Taylor says he plans to “rebrand” the program as a temporary “gateway to supportive housing,” shifting focus away from permanent stability and toward short-term turnover. “We’re trying to help more people with the same amount of dollars,” Taylor said. Critics call that reasoning deeply flawed, and dangerous. Former Mayor Jacob Day, who helped launch the initiative, says that Housing First was always intended to be permanent supportive housing, not a revolving door. National studies show that when cities replace permanent housing programs with short-term placements, people end up right back on the streets, and that costs taxpayers more in emergency medical care, policing, and crisis intervention. Local advocates warn that Taylor’s move will undo years of progress. “This isn’t just a policy shift, it’s a step backward,” one social service worker said. “Housing First works because it’s humane and cost-effective. This administration is turning it into a revolving door to nowhere.” Even some community partners who agree the program needs better oversight say that Taylor is missing the point. Anthony Dickerson, Executive Director of Salisbury’s Christian Shelter, said the city should be reforming and strengthening its approach, not abandoning its foundation. Under Taylor’s proposal, participants could be limited to one or two years in housing before being pushed out, whether or not they’re ready. Advocates fear this change could push vulnerable residents back into instability, undoing the progress the city was once praised for. While Taylor touts his plan as a way to “help more people,” critics say it reflects a troubling pattern in his administration: cutting programs that work. For years, Salisbury’s Housing First initiative has symbolized compassion and evidence-based leadership and has stood as a rare example of a small city tackling homelessness with dignity and results. Now, as Taylor moves to end it, residents and advocates are asking a simple question: Why would a mayor tear down one of Salisbury’s most successful programs for helping people rebuild their lives?
By John Christie October 24, 2025
On the first Monday of October, the Supreme Court began a new term, Term 2025 as it is officially called. The day also marked John Roberts’ 20 years as Chief Justice of what history will clearly record as the Roberts Court. Twenty years is a long time but at this point, Roberts is only the fourth longest serving Chief Justice in our history. John Marshall, the fourth and longest, served for 34 years, 152 days (1801–35). Roger Brooke Taney, served for 28 years, 198 days (1836–64). Melville Fuller, served 21 years, 269 days (1888 to 1910). John Roberts was originally nominated by George W. Bush to fill the seat held by the retiring Sandra Day O’Connor but, upon the unexpected death of William Rehnquist, Bush instead nominated Roberts to serve as Chief Justice. His nomination was greeted by enthusiasm and high hopes in many quarters. He was young, articulate, personable, and highly qualified, having had an impressive academic record, experience in the Reagan administration and the private bar, and service on the federal D.C. Court of Appeals for two years. His “balls and strikes” comment at his confirmation hearing struck many as suggesting judicial independence. He sounded as well very much like an institutionalist, having said at an early interview that “it would be good to have a commitment on the part of the Court to act as a Court.” Whatever else might be said 20 years later about the tenure of John Roberts as Chief Judge, the Supreme Court is no doubt much less popular and much more divisive today than it was on September 29, 2005, when he was sworn in as the 17th Chief Justice by Justice John Paul Stevens, then the Court’s most senior associate justice, and witnessed by his sponsor, George W. Bush. Gallup’s polling data shows popular support for the Court now at the lowest levels since they started measuring it. In July 2025, a Gallup poll found that, for the first time in the past quarter-century, fewer than 40% of Americans approved of the Supreme Court’s performance. According to Gallup, one major reason that approval of the Supreme Court has been lower is that its ratings have become increasingly split along party lines — the current 65-point gap in Republican (79%) and Democratic (14%) approval of the court is the largest ever. The legal scholar Rogers Smith wrote in The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science in June, “Roberts’s tenure as Chief Justice has led to the opposite of what he has said he seeks to achieve. The American public now respects the Court less than ever and sees it as more political than ever.” These results signify more than simply a popularity poll because a Court without broad public support is a Court that will not have the same public respect upon which their most important decisions have historically depended. And, whatever the reasons for this development, it has happened on John Roberts’s watch. There is no better example of the current divisiveness on the Court than the remarkable string of “emergency” rulings on the Court’s so-called shadow docket since January 20. The extent of ideological and partisan differences has been sharp and extreme. The conservative majority’s votes have frequently been unexplained, leaving lower court judges to have to puzzle the decision’s meaning and leaving the public to suspect partisan influences. And the results of these shadow docket rulings have had enormous, sometimes catastrophic, consequences: Removing noncitizens to countries to which they had no ties or faced inhumane conditions Disqualifying transgender service members Firing probationary federal workers and independent agency heads Ending entire governmental departments and agencies without congressional approval Allowing the impounding of foreign aid funds appropriated by Congress Releasing reams of personal data to the Department of Government Efficiency Allowing immigration raids in California based on racial and ethnic profiling John Roberts has written many Supreme Court opinions in his 20 years as Chief Justice. At the 20-year mark, the most important, to the nation and to his legacy, will likely be his opinion in the Trump immunity case, which changed the balance of power among the branches of government, tipping heavily in the direction of presidential power. Trump v. United States (2024). In her dissent from his majority opinion in that case, Justice Sonia Sotomayor, joined by Justices Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson, warned about the consequences of such a broad expansion of presidential power. “The Court effectively creates a law-free zone around the president,” upsetting the status quo that had existed since the nation’s founding and giving blanket permission for wrongdoing. “Let the president violate the law, let him exploit the trappings of his office for personal gain, let him use his official power for evil ends. In every use of official power, the president is now a king above the law.” Roberts claimed in his majority opinion that the “tone of chilling doom” in Sotomayor’s dissent was “wholly disproportionate” to what the ruling meant. However, Sotomayor’s words have proved prescient: the breadth of power that Trump and his administration have asserted in the months since he was sworn in for his second term has made plain how boundlessly they now interpret the reach of the presidency in the wake of the Roberts opinion. Despite the early “balls and strikes” comment, the assessment of John Roberts’ long term judicial record suggests something different as seen by several distinguished legal commentators from significantly different perspectives. As summarized by Lincoln Caplan, a senior research scholar at Yale Law School, in a new retrospective article on Robert’s 20-year tenure, “From his arrival on the Court until now, his leadership, votes, and opinions have mainly helped move the law and the nation far to the right. An analysis prepared by the political scientists Lee Epstein, Andrew Martin, and Kevin Quinn found that in major cases, the Roberts Court’s record is the most conservative of any Supreme Court in roughly a century.” “What Trump Means for John Roberts's Legacy,” Harvard Magazine , October 8, 2025. Steve Vladeck, Georgetown Law Center professor and a regularly incisive Court commentator, characterized the 20-year Roberts’ Court as follows: “The ensuing 20 years has featured a Court deciding quite a lot more than necessary — inserting itself into hot-button social issues earlier than necessary (if it was necessary at all); moving an array of previously settled statutory and constitutional understandings sharply to the right; and, over the past decade especially, running roughshod over all kinds of procedural norms that previously served to moderate many of the justices’ more extreme impulses.” “The Roberts Court Turns Twenty,” One First , September 29, 2025. In another remarkable new article by a widely respected conservative originalist, similar concerns about the present Court have very recently been expressed. Caleb Nelson, who teaches at the University of Virginia and is a former law clerk to Justice Clarence Thomas, has written that the text of the Constitution and the historical evidence surrounding it in fact grant Congress broad authority to shape the executive branch, including by putting limits on the president’s power to fire people. “Must Administrative Officers Serve at the President’s Pleasure?” Democracy Project, NYU LAW , September 29, 2025. When the First Congress confronted similar ambiguities in the meaning of the Constitution, asserts Nelson, “more than one member warned against interpreting the Constitution in the expectation that all presidents would have the sterling character of George Washington.” Nelson continues, “The current Supreme Court may likewise see itself as interpreting the Constitution for the ages, and perhaps some of the Justices take comfort in the idea that future presidents will not all have the character of Donald Trump. But the future is not guaranteed; a president bent on vengeful, destructive, and lawless behavior can do lasting damage to our norms and institutions.” John Christie was for many years a senior partner in a large Washington, D.C. law firm. He specialized in anti-trust litigation and developed a keen interest in the U.S. Supreme Court about which he lectures and writes. 
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