Election Surprises — A Bumper Crop

Peter Heck • August 13, 2024


Back in June, a Common Sense article on the importance of voting responsibly said, “Let’s look at the presidential race. The fact is that one of two men, Joe Biden or Donald Trump, the Democrat or the Republican — barring some unforeseen event — will be the next president of the United States.”

 

That phrase about unforeseen events was prophetic — though the part saying it will be the Democrat or the Republican who wins in November is probably still true. Probably.

 

We’ve had more than the usual quota of the unforeseen during the last two months. Politics is always subject to the unexpected, but this year seems to have produced a bumper crop of surprises.

 

First, a lacklusterdebate performance by Biden — caused in part by a severe cold — sent a wave of panic through Democratic elected officials and voters. The perception that 81-year-old Biden was “too old,” which was already being peddled by Republicans, took on strength — although their own candidate, at 78, is hardly a young man. After that debate, serious news outlets including the New York Times began calling for Biden to end his campaign.

 

Then, a 20-year-old sniper fired into the crowd at a Trump rally in Butler, Pa. — killing one and wounding several more, including the former president. The injury to Trump — a nick on the right ear — was a few inches from being a fatal head shot. A flood of speculation and conspiracy theories followed, fueled by the fact that the shooter, who was killed by police, was unavailable to provide hard facts about his motivation for the assassination attempt.

 

And then, just after the Republican National Convention came to an end, President Biden announced that he was ending his re-election campaign, and endorsed Vice president Kamala Harris to take the top spot in the Democratic ticket. The response by most Democrats was enthusiastic, while the Trump campaign, which had geared its strategy to attack Biden, was caught unprepared. What a surprise! After pushing the line that he was too old to run, they weren’t ready for him to take them at their word.

 

Following all these events, the election campaign we thought we were in store for in early June has been replaced by something quite different. After Biden’s withdrawal, the Republicans are faced with the question whether their own candidate is “too old to be president.” Trump’s rambling, nearly incoherent performances on the campaign trail haven’t made that question any easier for them to answer.

 

Harris’s background as a prosecuting attorney should give her the debating skills to take on her opponent far more energetically than Biden did in the June debate. Possibly in recognition of that fact, Trump at first refused to take part in the debate scheduled for September 10 on ABC News. Instead, he proposed a September 4 debate sponsored by Fox News, where he probably felt he can escape tough questions and fact-checking. Then, on August 8, he reversed course and agreed to the ABC debate, plus two more at unspecified dates. One wonders if his advisers convinced him that ducking out of a debate made him look like a “chicken” — something totally at odds with the image he has cultivated.

 

For her part, Harris has made it clear she wants to debate Trump, calling for him to “say it to my face” after some of his remarks, and she has said she is willing to debate Trump — in his words —  “anywhere, anytime, anyplace” in addition to the originally scheduled September 10 debate. 

 

Meanwhile, JD Vance, the Republican nominee for vice president, probably seemed a safe choice when the prospective opponent was Biden. A Christian conservative, Vance seemed likely to shore up the Republican base in an election where a significant number of voters were unhappy with both presidential choices. Now, Vance’s record of outright sexist comments risks alienating a significant number of voters, especially the swing voters who are likely to be the deciding factor in a close election. Democrats are gleefully pointing out these gaffes. On the other hand, it’s not clear how many voters are comfortable — even in 2024 — with the idea of a woman president. Trump’s defeat of Hillary Clinton in 2016 was a surprise to many.

 

Harris’s choice for vice president is Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, a popular progressive from a midwestern state. A military veteran and a former high school teacher, Walz served six terms in Congress from a district that previously had elected only two Democratic representatives since before the Civil War. He is expected to add to the ticket’s appeal in neighboring rural states the Democrats need to win in November. Walz has been on the reported shortlist for the position since it became open, so his selection doesn’t qualify as a surprise.

 

That doesn’t rule out something unexpected, though. It wasn’t that long ago that John McCain and his advisers saw Sarah Palin as an asset to their ticket, though most commentators thought otherwise after the election. The 1972 Democratic ticket initially had Missouri Senator Thomas Eagleton as George McGovern’s running mate, but he dropped out after the revelation that he was seeing a therapist for depression. Things have changed enough that this probably wouldn’t disqualify a candidate today.

 

With just over two months until the November 5 election, there’s still room for more surprises. In fact, the “October surprise” — some unanticipated last-minute revelation — has been a fairly regular feature of presidential elections as far back as October of 1840, when federal prosecutors charged Whig party officials with a scheme to have Pennsylvania residents illegally vote in New York state.

 

More recent examples include Lyndon Johnson’s announcement of a bombing halt in Vietnam the weekend before the 1968 election in an unsuccessful attempt to boost Hubert Humphrey’s candidacy, or the 2016 announcement by then-FBI Dir. James Comey that he was investigating Hillary Clinton’s emails. Who knows how much those October surprises affected the final results? And who knows what the respective campaigns may pull out of their sleeves by October of this year?

 

Still, the next president of the United States will be Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, barring some unforeseen event. Stay tuned for the next big election surprise. It’s sure to come.

 

       

Peter Heck is a Chestertown-based writer and editor, who spent 10 years at the Kent County News and three more with the Chestertown Spy. He is the author of 10 novels and co-author of four plays, a book reviewer for Asimov’s and Kirkus Reviews, and an incorrigible guitarist.


Common Sense for the Eastern Shore

Health of His Constituents is Apparently Not a Priority for Rep. Dr. Andy Harris

By Jan Plotczyk • October 8, 2025
The Republican Congress and President Trump are causing a health care crisis and Democrats are trying to fix it. Passed in July, the GOP budget reconciliation bill is drastically cutting health insurance programs to pay for tax cuts for billionaires. Rep. Andrew P. Harris (R-MD01) voted for the budget reconciliation bill. He voted, knowing that his vote would mean that health care costs would rise for 25,000 of his constituents in Maryland’s First Congressional District:

Judge Denies Trump Administration’s Attempt to Stall Maryland Offshore Wind Case Amid Federal Shutdown

By CSES Staff • October 8, 2025
 Efforts by the Trump administration to delay a critical court case over Maryland’s offshore wind project have failed, marking another setback in the president’s campaign to block renewable energy development along the East Coast. On Oct. 2, U.S. District Court Judge Stephanie Gallagher denied a motion filed by the Department of Justice to pause an ongoing lawsuit involving US Wind’s proposed 114-turbine wind farm off Ocean City. The administration had argued that the federal government’s shutdown prevents its attorneys from continuing the case. The judge’s swift rejection ensures that the litigation and progress on one of Maryland’s most significant clean energy projects will continue. Initially filed by Ocean City officials and a small group of residents nearly a year ago, the suit challenges the federal approval of US Wind’s project, which would deliver enough clean electricity to power more than 700,000 homes. Under the Biden administration, the federal government had defended the project in partnership with US Wind. That stance was reversed after Trump took office earlier this year and installed officials hostile to offshore wind. In September, the Trump administration filed a separate motion seeking to vacate federal approval for the Maryland project altogether, a move widely condemned by environmental advocates, labor groups, and business leaders who see offshore wind as a cornerstone of Maryland’s energy and economic future. US Wind responded forcefully to the shutdown motion, warning the court that the administration’s attempts to delay proceedings could allow it to undermine the project’s approval behind the scenes quietly. The company argued that halting the case would create “existential risks” for the future of Maryland’s offshore wind industry. Judge Gallagher agreed that the case should move forward, setting the next status hearing for Oct. 7. The Trump administration’s repeated efforts to obstruct offshore wind development come as Maryland and other states have invested heavily in building the infrastructure, workforce, and port facilities needed to anchor the growing clean energy industry. Maryland Gov. Wes Moore has championed the sector as a key driver for well-paying jobs and long-term economic resilience for the Eastern Shore. Supporters of US Wind point out that the project will bring over $1 billion in investment to Maryland, generate thousands of construction and maintenance jobs, and help deliver cleaner, more affordable energy to homes and businesses across the region. “Offshore wind isn’t just about turbines, it’s about jobs, innovation, and independence,” one clean energy advocate said after the ruling. “Every delay costs working Marylanders opportunity, and this decision ensures progress continues.” While the broader lawsuit over the project’s approval is ongoing, the latest ruling represents a clear win for those fighting to keep Maryland’s offshore wind future on track — and a blow to Trump’s attempt to turn back the clock on clean energy.

Should We Pin Our Hopes on Mid-Cycle Redistricting in MD-01?

By Jan Plotczyk • October 8, 2025
Maryland has eight congressional districts, and the seats for all but District 01 are filled by Democrats. As we well know, the First District representative is a Republican — Andrew P. Harris. Here’s what Maryland’s congressional district map is now.

Megan Outten Kicks Off Wicomico County Council District 7 Campaign with Packed Crowd and Strong Early Momentum

By CSES Staff • October 8, 2025
With standing room only at Salisbury’s Historic Poplar Hill Mansion, and blending policy, community service, and grassroots energy, Megan Outten launched her campaign for Wicomico County Council District 7 before almost 100 supporters on Oct. 4. The event drew community residents, labor leaders, and local officials, many of whom also helped to pack nearly 300 care kits for Wicomico residents in need. The community service effort doubled as a campaign statement about what Outten calls “choosing connection over convenience.” District 7 is one of Wicomico’s newly drawn single-member districts, with a Democratic advantage of 7.7%. Outten recalled her family’s history of service in Fruitland and Salisbury. “Service isn’t just politics in my family,” she said. “It’s how you belong to a place. It’s how you prove you care.” She pointed to the county’s landfill crisis, water and septic system failures, and school underfunding as examples of leadership that reacts rather than plans. “This is what happens when leaders only react after things break,” she said. “It costs us more. It hurts families. It robs our kids of the future they deserve.” Outten was joined by several local leaders who offered strong endorsements and reflections on her record. AFSCME Local 3 Eastern Shore representative Jack Hughes praised her leadership on the Salisbury City Council, crediting her with helping pass the Eastern Shore’s first municipal labor code, a significant win for city workers and first responders. Councilman Josh Hastings, who represents the district and is running for the Maryland House of Delegates in District 38B, said Outten would be “crucial in carrying forward the progress we’ve made” on clean water, schools, and infrastructure planning. Whitney Snowden-Olanrewaju from Blending Cultures, a non-profit organization that promotes diversity and equality, spoke about Outten’s record of community inclusion and bridge-building across diverse groups. Outten’s campaign is expected to roll out additional endorsements in the coming weeks. In her speech, she outlined a platform focused on fully funding schools, investing in infrastructure before it fails, and ensuring that county government works for everyone. “This campaign is not mine,” she told the crowd. “It’s ours. I am not standing above you. I am standing with you. And together, we will put Wicomico families first.” With enthusiasm, endorsements, and her message that’s focused on service and accountability, Outten’s kickoff reinforced that District 7 is already shaping up to have a strong favorite in 2026.

Community Rallies After Theft of Car Containing Hundreds of Care Kits for Wicomico Residents in Need

By CSES Staff • October 8, 2025
An act of inhumanity in Salisbury has sparked an outpouring of compassion. Early on Oct. 5, community organizer Jared Schablein’s car was stolen from his backyard. Inside the vehicle were hundreds of care kits assembled just days earlier during Megan Outten’s Wicomico County Council District 7 campaign kickoff event. Packed by volunteers at Salisbury’s Poplar Hill Mansion, the kits contained feminine hygiene products, socks, and toiletries meant for Wicomico County residents facing housing insecurity. “Those kits were meant for neighbors in need,” said Schablein. “If nothing else, I hope whoever took them returns them. Getting those care kits to the folks who need them matters more to me than anything else.” Schablein and Outten have turned the theft into action, launching a new effort called the “Care Kits Comeback Drive.” The event, scheduled for Oct. 12 at 2pm at Poplar Hill Mansion, aims to replace every lost kit, and more. Volunteers are asked to bring or donate items such as sanitary wipes, socks, toothpaste, period products, and underwear. Donations will support the Wicomico County Library, Help and Outreach Point of Entry, and other local service organizations. In announcing the new drive, Schablein emphasized the deeper meaning behind the effort: “When acts of inhumanity happen, the best response is acts of humanity. We’re showing that Salisbury’s compassion can’t be stolen.” Despite the setback, organizers say community support has been overwhelming. Donations began arriving within hours of the announcement, and several local groups have offered to distribute supplies once the new kits are complete. The theft is still under investigation by the Salisbury Police Department. As one volunteer put it at the last event, “Community isn’t guaranteed, it’s built.” This Sunday, Salisbury will build it again.

Momentum Builds to Save Connelly Mill Park: Community Leaders and State Officials Unite Around Vision for Wicomico’s “Central Park”

By CSES Staff • October 8, 2025
What began as a grassroots campaign to preserve a parcel of local land has become one of the most inspiring community movements on the Eastern Shore. Led by residents James and Mikele Dahlen and Holly Campbell, alongside dozens of volunteers, the Save Connelly Mill Park effort reached a significant milestone last week as Maryland Secretary of Natural Resources Josh Kurtz toured the site with local and state officials to explore opportunities for partnership and permanent protection. On Sept. 23, citizens gathered at Connelly Mill Park with a delegation of state and county leaders, including Sen. Mary Beth Carozza, Del. Barry Beauchamp, County Council President John Cannon, Vice President Jeff Merritt, Councilman James Winn, and local municipal representatives from Delmar and Salisbury. The tour marked the strongest signal to date that the state may play an active role in turning the park’s long-promised vision into reality. Advocates for Save Connelly Mill Park presented Kurtz with a booklet outlining the site’s environmental, historical, and economic importance. The presentation highlighted Connelly Mill’s potential to become a keystone of Wicomico’s park system — protecting the Paleochannel aquifer, preserving wildlife habitats, and providing much-needed green space for recreation and community gathering. Located just five miles from Salisbury, the 234-acre property has rolling forest, wetlands, and unique topography that advocates say could one day make it the “Central Park of Wicomico County.” “The natural beauty of Connelly Mill spoke for itself,” said one organizer after the event. “What we have here is not just land, it’s a promise to future generations.” Adding to the momentum, the community’s advocacy materials were presented directly to Maryland Gov. Wes Moore the next day at the Tawes Crab and Clam Bake in Crisfield, where he was briefed on the citizens’ efforts and growing local support. The proposed park would provide walking trails, open space for families, and educational opportunities while safeguarding vital water resources and promoting mental, physical, and social well-being for county residents. For many, the movement to save Connelly Mill has come to represent more than just one park. It’s about accountability, long-term planning, and ensuring public commitments to community spaces are kept. “We’re not out of the woods yet,” the group shared in a recent update. “But the spotlight is on Connelly Mill, and the momentum is growing.” As the state evaluates whether to designate Connelly Mill as a Partnership Park, supporters say they will continue to meet with officials and rally community engagement to ensure this once-forgotten project finally fulfills its promise. If realized, Connelly Mill would not only protect vital natural resources — it would stand as testament to what determined citizens can build when they refuse to give up.
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